Today’s horse racing preview comes from two meetings, with selections from York and Goodwood.
13.55 York – Betfred Mobile Strensall Stakes (Group 3) (8.8f)
its hard to look beyond Sovereign Debt and the 2015 winner Mondaliste with the latter the more likely one to repeat his win. David O’Meara has a cracking record in this race down the years with two wins in the past three years which includes the selection.
Mondaliste is not the easiest to catch right and has not visited the winners enclosure since landing the Arlington Millions last August. His consistency around York shows 1262 and despite only the one win at the Knavesmire he was very unlucky not to land the York Stakes here last month. With only one seven year old taking this race in City Style back in 2013, he does have to overturn the voodoo of beating the younger horses, especially four year old’s.
This would bring in Sir Michael Stoute’s Mustashry who recorded his third career success when landing the Moulsham Mile Handicap on the all weather at Chelmsford eleven days ago, but I still feel he is a few pounds wrong here to feel comfortable that he can win this. Sovereign Debt is another that has been there and got the t-shirt. Ruth Carr’s eight year old will have to overcome the fact that her entry here will be the oldest winner since the race was inaugurated back in 1986.
With three wins this season, which included a distance win in the Diomed Stakes when beating both Gabrial and Oh This Us off a weight of 9st 10lb. Was put well in his place in the Summer Stakes when the form with Gabrial was reversed, with a career best win coming off 114, he don’t have much to find to take on Mondaliste who’s career highest win has come off just 1lb higher. The last top weight to land this was Custom Cut back in 2014, but they are far between and could be vulnerable giving that 5lb to Mondaliste.
MONDALISTE : 2pt Win @ 5/2 (BOG)
14.10 Goodwood – Grosvenor Sport Prestige Stakes (Group 3) (7f)
Over eleven renewals there has not been that many shocks, with the average winning price being around the 11/4 with 5 of the past 10 favourites winning. Its a tight little contest this with the likes of John Gosden’s Verandah who looked smart on debut when landing her maiden on the all weather at Kempton seventeen days ago. She looked to have plenty in hand at the line when recording a two length win over File De Reve who also looks a nice prospect for trainer Ed Walker. Now diverting to turf, she would probably want some cut in the ground and can go well.
Charlie Appleby’s Peace Trail put the race to bed when just denying Roger Varian’s Attyn Orda at Newmarket last month. She was instantly given a RPR of 83 which I thought was a bit flattering considering she still looked a tad green in the closing stages. I am sure she has come on and learnt from that experience.
Jeremy Noseda won this back in 2011 with Regal Realm who went on to win the Oak Tree Stakes on her return to Goodwood. His representative here is the smart looking filly Quivery who is 2-2 on her career starts. She won well enough around the Novice ranks at Newmarket last month, though its not turning out to be the best of races with both the third and fourth beaten convincingly since.
The most experience comes in Richard Hannon’s Billsdon Brook who came from another parish to land a Nursery here at Goodwood at the beginning of the month, however she seems a difficult ride and up against some potentially nice fillies, she just might not get the gaps when needed here. So I will give the vote to Verandah to improve on her all weather win and land this race.
VERANDAH : 2pt Win @ 3/1 (BOG)
15.00 York – Al Basti Equiworld Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) (6f)
A race over the years that has given a good indication towards the Middle Park or Dewhurst Stakes over the coming two months. Mark Johnston’s Cardsharp has been consistent all season with his biggest win when landing the July Stakes at Newmarket, however was put well in his place when only managing third in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes three weeks ago.
One he was behind was Nebo who is the selection to land this race. Charles Hill’s Kodiac offspring I thought was unlucky not to get closer to Barraquero who just kept finding more, Cardsharp was two and a half lengths back in third that day, along with Headway who just never turned up on the day. He is a soft ground performer and if not given too much to do by Jim Crowley this time around he looks the one to beat.
Invincible Army is also another that was beaten at Glorious Goodwood, his conqueror was Havana Grey who has been beaten since by Unfortunately in the Group 1 Prix Morny. He is another that will not mind some cut in the ground and could be the most unexposed runner in the race. One that might be worth checking in the market if any support is Kevin Ryan’s Stormbringer who is an interesting participant. Off the mark at the second attempt at Redcar and did it well.
This of course is a big step up from a Class 5 stakes race, but he looked to equip himself well enough on debut and more to come from this son of Dutch Art. Another to mention is Tim Easterby’s Staxton, he is 2-3 on career runs and looked to have plenty in hand under James Sullivan at Haydock two weeks ago, if this race has not come too soon he could also be in the mix under David Allan who has been riding well in recent weeks.
As for the winner though, this looks Nebo’s race to lose, he has the potential to go on from this with some big race entries to follow, I give Jim Crowley the benefit of the doubt here that he can punch him out to success.
NEBO : 2pt Win @ 5/1 (BOG)
15.20 Goodwood – Grosvenor Sport Celebration Mile Stakes (Group 2) (8f)
The nap of the day here goes to David Simcock’s Lightning Spear, I tipped him up to land the Sussex Stakes last time and actually thought at one stage that Oisin Murphy had timed the ride to perfection when challenging wide to be overhauled by Ribchester and the surprise winner Here Comes When. Winner of this race last year, he probably comes in to this where he was last season on form, the ground a slight concern, however he is the class act in the race.
Two against him is Hathal and Zonderland, the former has ran two good races this season finishing third on both occasions, third in the Summer Mile Stakes before running a good third again when behind Success Days and Mondaliste who runs on Friday. Zonderland makes his seasons debut, with a runners up spot behind Lightning Spear in this correspondence race last year when one and three quarter lengths behind the selection.
Four year old’s have not had the greatest of records in this race, in fact the last horse to succeed was Chic back in 2004, who also is the only horse to return and go back to back, so also a little pressure on the selection to succeed here.
LIGHTNING SPEAR : 2pts Win @ 11/8 (BOG)
15.35 York – Befred Ebor (Heritage) Handicap (13.9f)
As we have seen over the past couple of months you have to be on the pace here at York over middle distances, its also a minefield for favourites and probably could lay blind Flymetothestars with a bit of confidence. In fact the last winning favourite was back in Purple Moon in 2007. There has been only two single figure prices to win win this since, so for the each way punter there are prices out there with four or with some bookies five places on offer.
So where do we start, Jedd O’Keeffe’s Lord Yeats won a Class 2 handicap off 88 over 11.9f back in May and went on to land the Fred Archer Stakes when leading from start to finish at Newmarket, the front running tactics will come into his strong claims and around 20/1 a nice price to boot.
Saeed Bin Suroor won this back in 2012 with the heavily punted Willing Foe, they have two good representatives here in Winning Story and Natural Scenery. The former’s only success on turf came in a maiden two years ago and has not looked like winning anytime soon, the other entry and on bookings looks the first string, Winning Story has the same profile with only one career win on turf which came in a maiden on debut, both look to be well weighted out of this.
Jim Goldie’s reserve runner here Sir Chauvelin, will want two to come out to make the cut, but if running, is one that definitely ticks all the boxes. Was behind Soldier In Action in the Summer Handicap at Goodwood over the index. I believe he gets this trip well and has not run badly at the attempts at the trip, however being a reserve is no favours and hopefully two do come out as at 25/1, he is worth a some pennies each way chucked at him.
One I like very much in this is Marco Botti’s Wild Hacked, his only win this year has come on the all weather over a mile and a half, Paul Hanagan will be the tenth different jockey to get on board, Wild Hacked has the potential with this step up in trip and would like to think he will be on the premises.
I am going to be bold here and tip up a Willie Mullins flat runner, the trainer has Thomas Hobson running on Friday, and here has Ivan Grozny who looks to have been trained with this in mind. The last two renewals have gone back to Ireland and I can see this can be the third in four years. With only two turf runs to his name, one of those runs resulted in a win when landing the Guinness Stakes at last years Galway festival. He made a mockery of his mark of 100 that day when winning by fourteen lengths, and in today’s terms he should be rated around 110, getting into this off 105 is a laughable and very generous mark, goes close in this under champion jockey Jim Crowley.
IVAN GROZNY : 2pts each way @ 15/2 (BOG)
18.40 Windsor – Windsor Bet & Watch At Sunbets.co.uk Winter Hill Stakes (Group 3) (10f)
Last years winner Chain of Daisy’s looks to have a cracking chance of repeating the success. This year has been a complete different preparation, she came through the Hopping Fillies Stakes last season on route to this race, she finished fifth and came the same route once more when finishing runner up this time, she has had one race less this time around so significantly this race has been on the agenda, only other change is she will running off a 4lb higher mark, but when you beating the likes of Ulysses in last years race who now supplies a rating of 121 it makes you reflect how well in she is on last years ratings.
Roger Charlton’s Ayrad has been disappointing now for a while, fifth in this last year and has been beaten this year by Frankuus and Spark Plug. The last win came back in July last year when landing the Listed Gala Stakes, he is 3lb lower than that win, but could not put him forward with any conviction. Frankuus has been beaten by Spark Plug and ran very well against Defoe in the Glasgow Stakes, so his win in the Rose of Lancaster Stakes was well deserved and had Aristocratic was well beaten, but he is not that consistent enough again to be taken seriously here, so a confident vote goes to Chain of Daises
CHAIN OF DAISES : 2pt win @ 5/1 (BOG)
Best of Luck, Bet Responsibly
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