All articles by: Darren Chettleburgh

Horse Racing Preview – Doncaster – 16th September 2017

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Today’s horse racing preview selections come from Doncaster, with the St Leger the main feature on the card. Its been a hard week to be fair, with below par runs from many that you would have thought had the success in them, I am sure they will bounce back.

 

13.50 Doncaster – William Hill Portland Handicap (5.6f)

A cavalry charge to start the day off, with 5 places paid by most bookmakers there is value to be had, but I have just picked out the one here that I have followed all season religiously in Roger Varian’s Compas Scoobie. I just feel the questionable run last time at Epsom was the ground and the fact they ran him far too quickly after his win at Bath.

He has had three weeks this time around to re-cooperate and with the conditions in his favour I am expecting a big run, especially now Andrea is back on board, his form on ground coming up soft is 112 which is even more encouraging. As we do have another twenty one runners in the field I am not taken with that many, Henry Candy’s Vibrant Chords and Charles Hills A Momentofmadness make most appeal of the rest. The former won at Goodwood back in May when beating Charles Hills A Momentofmadness by three parts of a length.

Vibrant Chord will have to concede just the 2lb this time around ,1lb better off than last time they met at Goodwood. They have been both consistent this year, Candy’s charge was probably very unlucky not to win here last time out when run out of it by Desert Law who was beaten out of sight on the first day of this meeting. However, the form-line through Desert Law favours Vibrant Chord as a Momentofmadness was given a heavier defeat by Desert Law.

COMPAS SCOOBIE : 2pts each way @ 16/1 (BOG)

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14.25 Doncaster – Alan Wood Plumbing and Heating Park Stakes (Group 2) (7f)

Two horses have gone back to back since 2003, Iffraajj who won it back to back for two different trainers, and Arabian Gleam for Jeremy Noseda, I feel this could be the third. Breton Rock’s Lennox Stakes win puts him right there with a shot, with Home of the Brave and Acclaim both beaten on that occasion. The Hungerford Stakes was probably a tough race for him, being up against the likes of Massatt and Librisa Breeze was no mean feat.

Interesting though Oisin Murphy has elected to ride Acclaim and Atzeni stays loyal to Breton Rock, who has got it right. Acclaim has been put in as the favourite to land this race for Martyn Meade who saw Chilean recently land the Ascendant Stakes at Haydock. The concern is that the trainer is 1-23 with his older horses since last August, and had to deal with hitting the bar once more with Acclaim who was out gunned in the Maurice De Gheest by Brando last month.

Acclaim never came here last year and diverted to Newbury where he landed the Listed Dubai Duty Free Cup Stakes on soft ground, so maybe the price of 11/4 is purely reflecting a big run is expected on this ground.

BRETON ROCK : 1.5pt Win @ 5/1 (BOG)

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15.00 Doncaster – Howcroft Industrial Supplies Champagne Stakes (Group 2) (7f)

Charlie Appleby won this back in 2015 with the smart Emotionless and once more he looks to have a decent colt on his hands with Mythical Magic. 2-2 now in his career and the fact he has improved from his first to second run which we saw when he landed the Listed Prix Francois Boutin at Deauville. The interesting thing is he is getting quicker with every run, he shaded three seconds off his Ascot debut when winning in France in just fifteen days.

Mark Johnston’s Dream Today was impressive when bolting up at 14/1 at York, the third Laugh A Minute won the £300,000 Yearlings race on Thursday. He is an unknown quality in the race, as most of Johnston’s horses usually come on for a run, but Dream Today looks very forward and I would not be surprised if he gives the selection the most to do.

MYTHICAL MAGIC : 3pt Win @ 11/4 (BOG)

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15.35 Doncaster – William Hill St Leger Stakes (Group 1) (14.6f)

I have not had the privilege of witnessing many good distance horses on the flat, obvious two being Yeats and Double Trigger, even Kingston Hill creeps into the category, so when I once more get the chance to see a decent stayer its always good to jump on the wagon. Varian and Atzeni won this three years ago with Kingston Hill who stepped up to this trip the one time and brought success, this year their representative is the vast improving Defoe.

His transition has been sublime to watch this year notching up 4-4 for the season, he has improved every time Roger Varian has stepped him up in trip, and even a quote this week form jockey Andrea Atzeni who keeps the ride ahead of Harry Bentley that he has been showing signs of further improvement at home. If this is the case then he looks a solid bet at around 9/2.

I would expect him to go off favourite near post time, but at present at the head of the market is Ballydoyles Capri. He looked a useful juvenile last year when winning the Canford Cliff and Beresford Stakes, going on to finish third in the juvenile Group 1 Criterium in France. He has taken a while to get going this year, finishing sixth in the Derby and then franked the form when going back on home soil to land the Irish equivalent.

This race must have been on the agenda for some time, as we have not seen him since winning the Irish Derby, Favourites have won two of the past four renewals, but on a wider scale they have a poor level of return. Capri will have to be taken seriously from a trainer that has won this race on four occasions. However, I do feel there is value in this race with Andrew Balding’s Count Octave.

The son of the mighty Frankel and related to Treasure Beach is very closely matched with another that is fancied in Stradivarius. Since winning his maiden at Wolverhampton, he was quickly put into the limelight getting a chance early to run in pattern company, he ran well enough when finishing fifth to Venice Beach who finished six lengths behind Cracksman in the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York. The runner up Wings of Eagles went on to win the Epsom Derby.

He was suddenly stepped up in trip to 13.5f a trip that no Frankel progeny was expecting to face, but he ran a blinder finishing a neck behind Stradivarius, Secret Advisor was back in third that day and has recently franked the form when winning the Melrose Stakes, the fourth Belgravia has also given the form a boost when winning a 21k race at Leopardstown back in July.

Count Octave has progressed under the radar, his recent run behind Call To Mind in the March Stakes shows he is one that has been over looked. I have to be realistic that this is a big step up in trip and class, but he has a similar profile I think to Defoe and is five times the price, so purely this is why i think his an interesting runner in the race and I am willing to give him an each way shout.

COUNT OCTAVE : 1pt Each Way @ 20/1 (BOG)

 

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Horse Racing Preview – Doncaster – 15th September 2017

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Today’s horse racing preview selections come from the third day of the St Leger meeting at Doncaster, with three Group races on the card with the Doncaster Cup Stakes being the main feature.

 

13.20 Doncaster – Weatherby’s Bank Foreign Exchange Flying Scotsman Stakes (Listed) (7f)

Richard Hannon’s horses have suddenly dried up, currently 1-23 with his juveniles, he saddles two contenders here in De Bruyne Horse and Tigre Du Terrre. The former drops back into company that will better suit him, having been beaten convincingly on his past two runs. De Bruyne Horse returns to the level that saw him land the Listed Prix Des Jouvenceaux Des Jouvencelles at Vichy.

This will be the softest conditions he has encountered, and this would give me concern that he will act on the ground. Hannon’s Tigre Du Terre looks the first string here on bookings, Ryan Moore rode him when finishing fourth in the Listed Pat Eddery Stakes, the form-line is working out quiet well with the runner up Another Batt winning the Group 3 Trakya Trophy out in Turkey and Alba Power who ran well to finish fourth in this years Goffs Yearlings Stakes at York.

The question for me though on Tigre Du Terre’s chances here is the fact that he has not really progressed from his maiden win at Ascot back in July, in fact has probably become backward and could improve once turning three. This race over the four renewals has gone to either Godolphin or Hamden Al Maktoum and the boys in blue are represented here with what is today’s selection in Aqabah.

Watching his Curragh run when fourth in the Listed Marble Hill Stakes, he took some time to get going under Pat Smullen, but was beaten by the smart Brother Bear who has not been able to put that win to good use in pattern company. However the third US Navy Flag, franked the form when landing the Group 3 Tower Stakes, the sixth place finisher Sioux Nation has gone on to land the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes and added the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes to his resume last month.

Aqabah looked to have been getting the hang of things in the closing stages at the Curragh and can step back into more comfortable territory after two non positive efforts at pattern level.

AQABAH : 2pt Win @ SP (BOG)

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13.50 Doncaster – Japan Racing Association Sceptre Stakes (Group 3) (7f)

It’s been seven years since we have seen a winning favourite of this renewal, in fact the average SP price has been around 11/1 with the last five of the past six renewals going to double figure priced entries. So we have a race with value. If the ground stays soft this is a big opportunity for Hughie Morrison’s Pirouette to show that her Listed win in Germany was no fluke. She relished the conditions that day when routing her rivals by five lengths when at the head of the market.

Apart form her run in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes when finishing mid division, she has really been consistent to the level that she deserves to record her first pattern win of her career. Best of the rest, Eternally got the better of Tomyris when they met in the Oak Tree Stakes at Goodwood, there was just a head between them, but considering Eternally was only having her first seasonal run, she is probably open to more improvement over Roger Varian’s Tomyris, but the trainer has won this the past two years so Varian’s entry cannot be discounted lightly.

PIROUETTE : 1pt each way @ 8/1 (BOG)

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14.25 Doncaster – Wainwrights Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) (5f)

When this race was first inaugurated, fillies dominated this race taking nine of the ten renewals from 2000-2009, since then the colts have showed domination and this year I cannot see the trend changing. Today’s NAP comes by the way of Havana Grey. He has been a useful juvenile for Karl Burke this season winning four of his seven career runs which have seen him take races such as National Stakes, Dragon Stakes and Molecomb Stakes.

He had his first taste of Group 1 action when going to Deauville to tackle the Prix Morny, he was unlucky not to of come home victorious when run down by Unfortunately. His key to his current ability is the ground for me, soft to heavy conditions he is hard to beat and this is the case today.

One at a price, Scott Dixon’s Wings Of The Rock could outrun her 40/1 market price, She finished fourth to Havana Grey in the Molecomb Stakes, the runner up Invincible Army recently landed the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes at Kempton and she is proven more than some on soft ground.

HAVANA GREY : 4pt Win @ 11/8 (BOG)

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15.35 Doncaster – Doncaster Cup Stakes (Group 2) (17.9f)

Two I just want to focus on here is Andrew Balding’s Montaly and David Simcocks smart stayer Sheikhzayedroad who won this last year. Montaly just got the better of Dartmouth in a thrilling finish to the Lonsdale Cup Stakes at York, but I have concerns of the ground, he has had four attempts on soft ground which have all ended in defeat, with two seconds in there also.

So a positive selection here in Sheikhzayedroad who was very unlucky I thought to finish fourth behind Montaly at York, he travelled strongly into the race until finding trouble two furlongs from home. He will get the advantage of 3lb from Montaly this afternoon, and with the way the race was panning out last time I expect him to be a lot closer this time around.

SHEIKHZAYDROAD : 2pt Win @ 5/1 (BOG)

 

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Horse Racing Preview – Doncaster – 14th September 2017

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Today’s horse racing preview selections comes from Doncaster, day two of the St Leger meeting, with two Group 2’s on the card in the May and Park Hill Stakes, along with the Weatherby’s Juveniles contest.

13.50 Doncaster – EBF British Stallion Studs ‘Carrie Red’ Fillies Nursery Handicap (6.8f)

This looks a big opportunity for John Gosden’s The Mums to land her second success, the daughter of Holy Roman Emperor just got up to beat Beshaayir at Newbury. The form of that race is starting to take shape, with Aim of Artemis winning nicely on Tuesday and who looked above average, this should be once more going to the top weight as it has the past three renewals.

Those to be chasing her home should be Richard Fahey’s Clubbable who despite still a maiden has equipped herself well, she has already put a defeat out to Poetic Steps to nine lengths, and despite having to give 4lb back this afternoon the form looks to be upheld.

THE MUMS : 3pt Win @ 5/2 (BOG)

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14.25 Doncaster – William Hill May Hill Stakes (Group 2) (8f Str)

Richard Hannon Jnr is looking to gain his first success in the race, with a few placed entries over the past six years he went close two years ago when Marenko who was just denied under Sean Levey. This year he has two entries, Tajannus and Billsdon Brook. The latter never seems to know when she is defeated, two good wins over the past month which included her first pattern win when taking the Group 3 Prestige Stakes. The more rain the better for her as she ploughed through the mud at Goodwood when taking a Class 2 Handicap coming from no where to get up on the line.

Tajannus was last seen winning the Group 3 Sweet Solero Stakes at Newmarket, she will be stepping into unknown territory when she tackles the straight mile for the first time, she is still open to improvement and gets the handling of Jim Crowley. Simon Crisford’s Dark Rose Angel won three weeks ago when winning over course and distance, that form took a boost when Amazing Michelle won well at Haydock last week.

Nyaleti needs to bounce back after her disappointment in the Prix Morney, which to be fair is the best form on paper here. Her win on good to soft when landing the Princess Margaret is not that strong, and I do feel she is vulnerable again. It’s a really tight contest, however Hannon should be tasting success this year with Tajannus who looks a good miler in the making.

TAJANNUS : 2pt Win @ 4/1 (BOG)

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15.00 Doncaster – DFS Park Hill Stakes (Group 2) (14.6f)

I am very surprised that Beat The Bank has not taken part here, which has sadly seen my money go on the ante-post market, The race I am focusing on is the Lilly Langtry where five of these clashed, Dubka (2), Melodic Motion (3), Natural Scenery (4), Wild Irish Rose (5) & Harlequeen (9), and this time around I am really confident that Ralph Beckett can win this race for the second year running when he saddles Melodic Motion.

The fact that I have chosen her over the other four is the fact that three of the top four finishers have had another run since. Melodic Motion will be coming here fresh after her 42 day layoff and even though she has a little to find with Dubka & National Scenery , she does look the likely one that will come here in better light.

MELODIC MOTION : 3pt Win (NAP) @ 9/2 (BOG)

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15.35 Doncaster – Weatherby’s Racing Bank £300,000 Yearling Stakes (6.8f)

Over the past renewals we have seen just the one winning favourite, and shock winners which included a 100/1 shot, so this is how open this race has become. On paper and form, Great Prospector and Tangled set the standard after they fought out the 1-2 in the Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes at York last month.

However, there is another horse that I feel can give them both something to think about, Hugo Palmer’s Alba Power finished fourth that day at York just two lengths of the winners pace. This time around Alba Power will be getting 3lb from both rivals, it might just not be enough to reverse the form, but It does give her a squeak at a more attractive price.

Any outsiders that might have improved, Richard Fahey has won this twice from the past three renewals and is very well represented here which includes Great Prospector, however I am going to dutch in this race with Requinto Dawn. I thought her splitting Roundhay Park and Shaheen at Beverley was an excellent run off her mark of 80.

It’s a race to have minimal stakes to which is exactly my intention, York form is probably the strongest in this so two each way selections to entice me.

ALBA POWER : 1pt each way @ 8/1 (BOG)
Requinto Dawn : 1/2pt each way @ 33/1 (BOG)

 

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