All articles by: Darren Chettleburgh

Horse Racing Preview – Newmarket & Windsor – 1st July 2017

by ·Comments Off on Horse Racing Preview – Newmarket & Windsor – 1st July 2017

Today’s horse racing preview comes from Newmarket and Windsor. Just the one winner to end the month, it’s been a tough one indeed but still hitting profit.

 

So another month starts and we have some great racing coming up, Glorious Goodwood, The Eclipse, King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Also this weekend the Irish Derby takes place. Can Wings of Desire add to his glorious Epsom win?

 

On the continent we have the Prix Jean Prat and the Grand Prix de Paris, so a feast of good quality racing, lets hope the weather permits from our current soft conditions which is as usual throwing very abnormal results.

 

14.05 Newmarket – Betway Fred Archer Stakes (Listed)   (12f)

Wiliam Buick is riding at present with purpose, the inform jockey rode an impressive treble at Doncaster yesterday afternoon and comes in for the first time ride on Sir Michael Stoute’s Midterm who is this afternoon’s selection. Buick has won this race twice which included last year on the smart Bateel who has gone on to better things. The trainer won this back in 2015 with Gospel Choir and has two adversaries to go to war with here with the other being Platitude.

Platitude gets the services of champion jockey Jim Crowley who is only 1-11 since mid may when riding for Stoute and looks on bookings the second string. He has not been seen since finishing third in the Listed Noel Murless Stakes at Ascot over 14f, the closest he has come to winning over today’s index was when runner up in last years King George V Handicap, won over 14f at Goodwood on his penultimate run when landing the Listed March Stakes.

Realistically he could definitely set good fractions for Midterm here to pick up the pieces; Platitude will be in better light once stepping back up in trip. Midterm should really get a good toe in to this, his attitude this year has been poor by his ability, however I think he was caught napping in the Group 3 Al Rayyan Stakes last time when giving Hawkbill and My Dream Boat far too much of an easy lead. For a four year old he is still relatively lightly raced and with the drop in class and two in form counterparts he should be hard to beat.

Second Step won well when landing the Listed Tapster Stakes at Goodwood to record his second career win over the index and first success in the UK. Even though that win came on good racing ground, this just might come up too much on the soft side.

MIDTERM : 2pt Win @ 5/2 (BOG)

{ad}

15.15 Newmarket – Betway Criterion Stakes (Group 3)  (7f)

James Doyle this afternoon has a good book of rides which includes Elizabeth Bennett in the race prior to this, he could be hitting a quick fire double when he rides Hugo Palmer’s Home of the Brave who won nicely for today’s pilot when taking the Listed King Richard III Stakes at Leicester back in April when beating Tasleet who has gone on to win the Group 2 Clipper Logistics Stakes and followed up when running a blinder to finish runner up in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Ascot last month.

Home of the Brave’s form on ground with cut shows good reading stats of 1011 with a disqualification in there also, for me the one to beat and a confident selection he can follow up his Leicester win. It’s been thirteen years since Sir Michael Stoute won this race with Arakan and sends last years Bonham Stakes winner Thikriyaat. He was seen at York last time when finishing third in the Ganton Stakes going behind by one length.

Winner of what is looking an average conditions race over course and distance last year, his wins have been too and far between and will have to show more tenacity to overcome the selection. Last years winner Breton Rocks is looking to become only the second winner to return and retain the race since Libranno back in 2012.

He comes into this in the exact form as last year, not so sure he will get the heavy ground this time around, but does relish cut in the ground and a very eye catching booking of Oisin Murphy who seems to ride live TV winners on a Saturday.

Thikriyaat and Breton Rocks will get the respect they deserve, however Home of the Brave looked to have blown the cobwebs away last time and can carry on his good fortune at the expense of Breton Rocks who is the main danger returning to retain.

HOME OF THE BRAVE : 2pt Win @ 9/4 (BOG)

{ad}

16.25 Windsor – sunbets.co.uk Midsummer Stakes (Listed)   (8.1f)

Andrew Balding can stamp his authority on the Listed event when he saddles Here Comes When who is coming off a good win in a large field in the Listed Hambleton Stakes. Timeform once more suggests most of these are exposed types, I would not say 1111211 stats on soft ground is overly exposed and I am sticking with the seven year old, Richard Fahey’s seven year old won this race last year so not impossible that age can conquer.

Morando struggled on his last run on ground to fast, returns to lighter conditions which saw him win a 0-105 handicap at Ayr on soft ground, however I thought his Chester run was far superior than anything he has shown since and could see him returning. Stormy Antarctic would have to bring his last seasons Ascot win on heavy ground if he wants to reproduce any form as that was his last recorded win, Jamie Spencer takes the ride so expect a late plunge.

HERE COMES WHEN : 2pt Win @ 9/4 (BOG)

 

Best of luck , Gamble Responsibly

Promotional Offer by BET365


<br />
www.betalyst.com

Horse Racing Preview – Doncaster, Yarmouth & The Curragh – 30th June 2017

by ·Comments Off on Horse Racing Preview – Doncaster, Yarmouth & The Curragh – 30th June 2017

Today’s horse racing preview comes from three meetings with selections coming from Doncaster, Yarmouth and The Curragh. Again, the run of the mill is certainly not going my way at present, I have witnessed two maidens in Ireland over the past two days and both horses have been backed into favouritism and finished last, maybe a different approach towards these maidens is required.

 

15.30 Doncaster – 188bet.co.uk Handicap (8f) (0-95)

Richard Hannon saddled the 2013 winner of this race Intrigo who is now trained by Charlie Appleby, the trainer saddles Mustaarid who was just beaten here at Doncaster two runs back when a head behind City of Joy who went on to finish midfield in this year’s Brittania Stakes, the third place Bless Him actually won the Brittania stakes so a good line of form.

He finished fifth in the Silver Bowl at Haydock in which has also produced winners such as Fire Brigade, the runner up Indian Dandy also ran a creditable fourth at Ascot in the same corresponding race.

Being sired by Australian sprinter Elzaam you would have thought this index was too far, but the dam Symbol of Peace is where the stamina comes from who won over 9.5f in her career., The sire never won on ground this soft nor did the dam who done most of her racing on the all-weather, for that reason I am willing to overlook him. Bryan Smart’s yard has been among the winners in recent weeks and looks to have a nice gelding in Helovaplan. He has won off marks of 68 & 74 which included a win over course and distance two weeks ago.

Now I am very confused in what Timeform have stated in their analysis of this race that Helovaplan is not effective on soft ground, considering the sire Helmet won three times on soft to heavy ground, so I am summarising that Helovaplan’s one defeat on soft ground has made them dismiss him out of hand, he is  still one on the upgrade and won well here.

Marco Botti’s Moolazim a winner on this blog just over two weeks ago will have to defy a 7lb penalty for his impressive win at Yarmouth, but gets the services of Ryan Moore once more, this is a stiff test though making this hike up the graded ladder.

With this being a really tight knit handicap, the horse I was taken with despite still looking for his first transition win is Simon Crisford’s Century Dream. His fourth in a competitive handicap at Newbury has to put him in with a cracking chance of recording his second career win. Doncaster is a good front running course and will play into Crisford’s colt advantages, William Buick takes over from Harry Bentley this afternoon and my first confident selection.

Century Dream : 2pt Win @ 5/2 (BOG)

{ad}

16.00 Doncaster – Read Silvestre De Sousa at 188bet Maiden Fillies Stakes  (10.1f)

Sir Michael Stoute won this corresponding race last year with Ruscombe and are once more well represented here with Superioritycomplex. After finishing last on debut at Newbury she was very significantly stepped up to 9f when just denied at Salisbury to a neck under Pat Dobbs. She is the daughter of Hard Spun who was more effective on quick ground, but his last career run came on a slow surface on the all-weather when finishing runner up in the Breeders Cup Classic.

The dam Justlookdonttouch has not got that many progeny’s in training in fact just the selection and Abingdon who won her fourth career race last week, so the two filly off springs are most definitely equipping themselves over middle distances and on that evidence the selection here.

What A Home ran a good third on debut for Willie Haggas at Newbury with three lengths back in fifth was Shimmering Light. Ben Curtis takes over from James Doyle this afternoon, is that a plus we will see, but she looked like a step up in trip was needed sooner than later. Others to focus on is Luca Cumani’s Kitty Boo who finished second on her turf debut at Nottingham, her short head defeat to what can only be described an average participant from the Mick Channon yard, she will have to show more this time around.

Superioritycomplex : 2pts Win @ 3/1 (BOG)

{ad}

16.10 Yarmouth – Grosvenor Casino Of Great Yarmouth Handicap (8f)  (0-105)

I think the penny has definitely dropped with Michael Bell’s Fire Brigade, I tipped him up here when he won at Haydock just holding on by the shortest of margins. With William Buick at Doncaster this a good opportunity for Luke Morris to pick up a spare winning ride.

De Sousa rode Fire Brigade to success at Newmarket two runs back, but prefers To Dibba of Roger Varian’s, another winner tipped up on this blog five weeks ago. He went about his business in good style putting two and a half lengths between him and his nearest rival. The step up in trip should not inconvenience this son of Dubawi, and already a winner on soft ground so more to come.

Now it’s hard when two blog winners go head to head, but I am hoping Fire Brigade can use his experience over the lightly raced To Dibba, who has the advantage also of winning over the index on soft ground.

Fire Brigade : 2pt Win @ 4/1 (BOG)

{ad}

19.15 Curragh – Hackett Apprentice Derby  (12f)

Two I am drawn to in this is Joseph O’Brien’s Thomas O’Malley and Johnny Murtagh’s Full Court Press. Both trainers have won this race, young Joseph last year with Arya Tara and Johnny back in 2015 with Jocular, both had significantly booked the same jockeys.

Firstly, Thomas O’Malley who should have finished a lot closer at Gowran Park last week under today’s pilot Anna O’Brien. She has no claim this time around however they have scrapped into the race with a nice light weight. Despite being 0-10 he has run some solid races and is only having his third campaign run of 2017, one for the shortlist for sure now stepping up in trip.

On to an outsider for Johnny Murtagh who won this back in 2015 with a 20/1 shot who was also coming into the race with a career record of 0-8 as was last year’s winner who was 0-5. It seems to be a race for horses that have been running well without winning. The last time we saw Full Court Press was when he finished fifth in last year’s Shergar Cup Classic running off a rating of 86. With trips that have not been suiting him, this step back up to 12f I think could see a much more positive run from the four year old.

Thomas O’Malley : 1pt each way @ 7/1 (BOG)

Full Court Press : 1pt each way @ 33/1 (BOG)

 

Best of luck , Gamble Responsibly

Promotional Offer by BET365


<br />
www.betalyst.com
 

Horse Racing Preview – Hamilton, Newmarket & Tipperary – 29th June 2017

by ·Comments Off on Horse Racing Preview – Hamilton, Newmarket & Tipperary – 29th June 2017

Today’s horse racing preview has selections from Hamilton, Newmarket and Tipperary. Well the weather has certainly got into the ground around the country and probably the wettest June on record, the heavy conditions are going to bring up erratic results for sure, so small stakes and ground dependable entrants.

 

15:15 NEWMARKET – 188BET HANDICAP (4)   (0-80)  (6f)

With the weather advertised as cloudy and overcast the ground has come up officially good to firm which has swayed my decision on the selection, with the rain hitting hard in the North of England i wanted to put forward Paul Cole’s Mutoondresdashorse who was just denied on sole run here as a juvenile when beaten a short head over course and distance on good ground.

It’s a race that has not thrown up too many winners, his transition went smoothly when winning at Newbury over 7f on soft ground, the runner up has gone on to run second to the smart Alwahsh, never adapted to the all-weather at Kempton when finishing eighth in a competitive 0-85 handicap, the top finisher’s went on to run at Royal Ascot finishing below par in both races. The sire Harbour Watch was far better on good to soft ground, but was unbeaten in his career 3-3 which included the Richmond Stakes, the drop down to 6f will benefit his chances.

Silvestre De Sousa has a current 50% strike rate for Ivan Furtado, the trainer is in fair form over the past couple of weeks especially when De Sousa is up. Sword Exceed purely on jockey bookings plus the fact his two and three-quarter lengths fourth at Leicester in this grade was a big step going forward, with the right jockey on board he could be on borderline striking distance.

Michael Bell is another trainer that has been in excellent form, but has been more successful when using his claiming jockey’s, Louis Steward lands the ride here on Hart Stopper who was seen winning a 0-70 handicap at Windsor, the runner up finished second once more at Chepstow and is booked to run in the 17.50 at Newbury tonight.

Hart Stopper will have to improve again off his 6lb penalty and career highest mark, but his run last time is far better on paper than most of this field as he would have probably won by further if Jamie Spencer did not do his last to first tactic’s as he is re-known for.

HART STOPPER : 2pt Win @ 3.75 (BOG)

{ad}

17.40 TIPPERARY – IRISH STALLION FARMS EUROPEAN BREEDERS FUND MEDIAN AUCTION MAIDEN (7.6)

Paul Deegan’s Live Twice was unlucky in running when hampered at a crucial time at Naas, despite being 0-11, the eye catching jockey booking of inform Connor O’Donoghue for the first time could see her long awaited success, but she is vulnerable to a newcomer if once more unable to bring anything to the floor and this could come in Dermot Weld’s Brevard.

The son of Bated Breath was more re-known as a 5-6f sprinter and never raced beyond 6f in his career, the dam was a moderate one race performer, so if he has managed to pick up the genes from the dam-sire Empire Maker this trip could be on the sharp side. Another one here and the selection is Marc Halford’s Spanish Dawn.

Now I am going to cautiously predict that the ground will ease at Tipperary, with heavy rain on the agenda I am hoping we get Good to soft conditions which gives Spanish Dawn a big chance of getting off at the first attempt. Being sired by Helmet who relished heavy conditions and with the bloodline through Bright Morning who also genuinely preferred easing ground, she could be a talented filly considering she never raced as a juvenile.

SPANISH DAWN : 2pt Win @ 4/1 (BOG)

{ad}

18.30 HAMILTON – BB FOODSERVICE MAIDEN STAKES (Qualifier) (4)  (6f)

Kevin Ryan’s Savalas sets the standard here after a good debut when finishing fifth to Santry who was just denied in the Norfolk Stakes, the second and fourth could not cut it in the Norfolk stakes finishing fifth and ninth respectably.

Last year’s winning trainer Mark Johnston saddles a new comer here in Arch Gold, the son of Arch has stuck to maiden over a novice entry in the next few days, however he could  be vulnerable on debut to entrants that have already gained significance experience,

Richard Fahey sends just the two to Hamilton this evening with Quayside being one, he improved on turf debut when finishing third at Chester on soft ground. Jack Garrity goes up for two rides for the trainer, the jockey is currently 1-13 for the trainer in last month and has been used mainly by Ruth Carr, he’s a jockey on the cold list.

Graham Lee is another jockey that has not been riding too many winners, in fact 2-26 does not show positive stats, he rides here Keith Dagliesh’s Here in the Dark who will probably relish the conditions more than some of these. Third on debut at Ayr when a 40/1 shot, probably out ran his odds that day and switches from Novice ranks into maiden company, will have to step up even more this time around.

SAVALAS : 2pt win @ 2.75 (BOG)

{ad}

19.35 HAMILTON – THISTLE BLOODSTOCK MAIDEN STAKES (5)  (9f)

John Shanahan loves to visit Scotland with his horses and he saddles two here in Unite the Clans & Set in Stone. Royston Ffrench rides what I think is the second string and possible pacemaker, did not produce the prospects of debut run when finishing fifth at Chester, but the winner ran a creditable seventh in the King George V Handicap at the Royal meeting, The runner up Bristol Missile won a below average maiden at Sandown.

The last winner Tadgh O’Shea had was when he visited Hamilton when riding for this trainer and gets the leg up on Set in Stone. One of the most experienced in the field this filly by Famous Name should be seen in better light dropping back to 9.2f. Never got home at York over 12f when seventh in a 0-90 handicap and to be honest what she has been running against is above anything at this level.

Tread Lightly drops back also in to maiden company after some poor runs around the 0-70 handicaps and will have to step up to overturn better opposition. Somnambulist finished third over a mile here at Hamilton last time out, will probably need this step up in trip and is pencilled in to return here in about a weeks’ time over 11.1f which could be the race he wins.

With John Shanahan winning this back in 2014 with Maid of the Glens, it makes you wonder if Unite the Clans is the horse to be on here. It just might be too much of a coincidence that is staring me in the face, so I am going to give Unite the Clans the nod here as is over double the price around 8/1, knowing my luck I pick the wrong one, but a chance worth taking each way.

UNITE THE CLANS : 1.5pt each way @ 8/1 (BOG)

 

Best of luck , Gamble Responsibly

Promotional Offer by BET365


<br />
www.betalyst.com