All articles by: Darren Chettleburgh

Horse Racing Preview – Naas – 9th April 2017

Horse Racing Preview – Naas

Horse Racing Preview today comes from Naas, with 5 races previewed, including the Gladness Stakes at 3.30pm.

Well another Aintree festival disappears, it was fabulous to see Lucinda Russell and Peter Scudamore have it right off with One For Arthur who eventually went on to win nicely in the end under Derek Fox. I cannot complain about Blaklion’s contribution, even though I was shouting at the screen when he hit the front cruising three out, but I asked myself was he really going as well as he looked, as Noel Fehily seemed to have nothing coming to the second last despite being bumped. His fourth place position at the end was creditable.

The blog managed to hit a +11.57 profit yesterday which to be fair was very welcoming, all of the selections ran well and it could have been more if Yanworth did not manage to out stay Supasundae from the last. Let’s hope the run of the green continues as our horse racing preview comes from the flat at Naas on Sunday afternoon. I am a sucker for juvenile maidens and my first selection comes in the 1.50.

 

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13.50 Naas -IRISH STALLION FARMS EUROPEAN BREEDERS FUND MAIDEN (5f)

Most of the top trainers have got their early juveniles in reasonable order and once more we see an Aidan O’Brien juvenile at the head of the market in Sioux Nation. The son of Scat Daddy will try to emulate his father’s ability of winning first time out. There are questions though as to if is this is just a starting point as his father was far superior over a mile. The Dam Dream the Blues had just the one career start for Kevin Ryan which was a winning success over the 6f on soft ground. Obviously he should come on very quickly from this experience, with Ryan Moore on board who is still looking for his first turf winner of the new campaign, I am willing to take him on at the odds over this sprint trip.

His son Joseph O’Brien has two adversaries in the race with Damselfly and Sebastiano Ricci with the latter the more interesting of the two. He is the son of Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere juvenile fourth place finisher Lope De Vega, who never competed over the sprint trips. He was more effective over a mile when landing the French 2000gns and went on to win the Prix Du Jockey Club over 10f. The dam Dear Dream raced only the three times when trained in France by John Hammond and was an average mare providing her highest rating of just 67. Sebastiano Ricci does have an entry later in the autumn for the Weatherby,s 2 year old stakes at Doncaster, but as for getting off the mark at the first attempt, he looks best watched when stepping up in trip.

One at a price could be Adrian Keatley’s Diamond Heartbeat, they were denied into a runner up spot last month here at Naas with juvenile Royal Diplomat. Their representative here is the son of Fast Company who won 2-3 starts as a juvenile for Brian Meehan. The dam was a standard low graded mare who was winless from her nine starts. Now it’s not encouraging with better pedigreed juveniles in the race, but he is well drawn in stall ten, Keatley won this race last year with a 16/1 shot when turning over an odds on shot of Mike Halfords. Shane Foley who gets the mount, won this race back in 2012 on Newsletter, it could be a lethal combination, price is each way value.

DIAMOND HEARTBEAT: 1pt each way @ 10/1 (BOG)

 

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14.25 Naas – IRISH STALLION FARMS EUROPEAN BREEDERS FUND FILLIES MAIDEN (6f)

It’s the turn of the fillies and we’ll have to see who has come on this year from their juvenile status. At the top of the tree is Edward Lynam’s Daisy Domergue who is the daughter of Richmond Stakes juvenile & Prix Jean Prat three-year-old winning sire Dick Turpin. The sire was unbeaten over today’s trip as a juvenile and went on to compete at the top level over various trips from 7f all the way up to 10f later in his career. The dam Siena Gold was a very good juvenile winning three of her first four starts over 5f-5.5f, but never trained on as a three-year-old when stepped up to today’s trip. On her pedigree, this trip could be beyond her.

At the bottom of the card we probably have the live contenders, Aidan O’Brien’s Smoulder and Dermot Weld’s Sorelle Delle Rose. The latter has had the benefit of a run when finishing third on debut as a juvenile over course and distance when beaten by a quarter of a length. The daughter of useful juvenile sprinter Dark Angel who won the Mill Reef Stakes and The Middle Park Stakes in his career both came on fast ground, the dam Kelsey Rose best career run came off a mark of 97 when second in the 0-110 Listed Sandy Lane Stakes. The ground just might go against her this afternoon and with the yard’s horses seemingly to be struggling at present on the soft ground, she would not interest me until the ground firms up.

This brings me on to the Ballydoyle newcomer Smoulder, the daughter of Redoute’s Choice who was a multiple Group 1 winner back in the late nineties and a well established stallion was down to run at Tipperary on Monday, but has elected to run here on less heavy ground. He poses a threat to Dermot Welds charge here and is the selection.

SMOULDER : 2pt Win @ 5/2 (BOG)

 

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14.55 Naas – Racing Again May 1st Handicap (6f)

The NAP goes here in Cenotaph from the O’Brien yard. The five-year-old ran a solid second over course and distance on his juvenile debut when behind Irish 1000gns runner up Endless Drama. He then went on to finish runner up to In My Pocket at Navan who went on to finish placed in the Group 3 Amethyst Stakes, two lengths behind now Group 3 Joel Stakes Winner Cougar Mountain. He has been very lightly raced and coached interestingly by Ballydoyle, with only three runs in 2015 which saw him finish third at The Curragh off a mark of 85.

He re-appeared after a fifteen month layoff when winning at Dundalk in comfortable fashion, again he has not been seen for seven months and makes his season debut. Goes well fresh and even though dropping back to 6f this afternoon, he sets the standard against some seriously exposed handicappers. Mizzah of Kevin Prendergast’s looks better than his eighth-place finish over course and distance last month when behind Bubbly Bellini and Athas An Bhean, at the weights he might find things tough again to reverse the form, but he is poised in the stalls next to Cenotaph and could make the selection work the most.

CENOTAPH : 4pt Win @ 11/4 (BOG)

 

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15.30 Naas – Gladness Stakes (Group 3) (7f)

Alice Springs is going to be a warm order here representing a stable that has only one this race once when Excelebration took the race back in 2012. This looks a prep race for Alice Springs with much better races on the calendar throughout the season. Last year’s Falmouth Stakes & Matron Stakes winner would have probably preferred quicker surface this afternoon, regardless though she is the class act in the race, but not a sure thing and will be taking her on.

Blue De Vega does not have that many miles on the clock for a four-year-old and the Group 3 Killavullan Stakes winner will have to step up once more to win this prize. I am swung towards an outsider here in Tommy Stacks Diamond Fields who has the most experience and is the most exposed runner in the race this afternoon. What I like about her is the fact that she has had a spell in America and ran an excellent second in the Grade 2 Sands Point Stakes at Belmont Park on her last start last season. Now she does go very well off a break and at 7/1 she looks real value getting weight all round from her competitors.

DIAMOND FIELDS : 1pt each way @ 7/1 (BOG)

 

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16.05 Naas – Dr Vincent O’Brien Centenary Alleged Stakes (Group 3)  (1m 2f)

Once more we see another O’Brien hotpot taking centre stage in Us Army Ranger, the son of Galileo was a very useful three-year-old when landing the Group 3 Chester Vase. He went on to finish second in the Epsom Derby behind Harzand who went on to win the Irish equivalent. He then seemed to lose his way and never looked comfortable when behind Success Days in the Group 3 Royal Whip Stakes, finishing four lengths behind when getting 5lb.

Again, he showed no turn of foot when beaten by Zhukova in the Group 3 Enterprise Stakes which saw Stellar Mass a long way back last. Totally outclassed in the Group 1 Champion Stakes at Ascot on his last run of last season and it reflects that he is far too short in the market, plus not reliable enough for me. Success Days beat US Army Ranger convincingly in the Whip Stakes last season when giving him 5lb, they meet off level weights this afternoon and it’s a tough ask for the O’Brien entry to reverse the form. What goes in Success Days favour here is if he gets a soft lead on this ground he could fend them off.

With not seeing a winning favourite in the last three renewals, you just get the feeling we can see a shock result in this race and Dermot Welds Sea Swift is not out of this by a long way. She has proven heavy ground form and won nicely here at Naas over a mile last June. She was given much praise that day by her jockey Pat Smullen and stated she would be open to much more improvement. It was not long before we saw that improvement when she showed up at Sligo when winning over 10.5f on heavy ground by eleven lengths. She was then pitched in to pattern company for the first time when competing in the Group 3 Lanwades Fillies Stakes finishing a non disgraced fifth over 9.2f and again she looked the unfinished article.

Once more we saw her return to Naas and finished a cracking third in a big field when behind Toe The Line in the Listed Bluebell Stakes over 12f. She looks versatile over 10f and if she can put her best foot forward she is definitely not a 16/1 shot in this, Jim Bolger has won this race twice in the past four renewals, so she has to be respected getting the sex allowance.

SEA SWIFT : 1pt each way @ 16/1 (BOG)

 

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Horse Racing Preview – Grand National – 8th April 2017

Horse Racing Preview – Grand National 5.15pm 

We have A special horse racing preview just for the Grand National. It could be a stroke of genius by the broadcasters or the organisers to stage the Grand National after the full time whistle on a full football calendar, or have they shrewdly kept the race back to bring it to a wider audience? Who knows, I am just waffling on. So we go into the 179th running of the greatest race in the world, The Grand National. A race that brings out the old lady punters, the one off punter, heavy hitters and the armchair followers who rub shoulder to shoulder and interacting on their fancies over a pint on the armchair, office syndicates hoping if they have chosen the right piece of paper for the sweepstake.

How many times I think I have heard someone tell me they have a strong tip for the National, it comes from the stable, the mucker out who drinks in your local and shared the winner with you because you bought him a pint. The National is a lottery, a race that see’s forty horses run around Aintree over four and a half miles, test of the fittest, the sound jumper, it’s still a lottery a race that many I know stick a pin in and get lucky.

Well here are my five against the field…

VICENTE

Paul Nicholl’s last won this back in 2012 when Neptune Collonges won by the narrowest of margins when beating Sunnyhill Boy by a nose. Vicente for me turned around his career when he finished fifth last season in the Listed NH Chase Cup at Cheltenham. That day. He had the now favourite for this race, Vieux Lion Rouge, five lengths behind him. He went on to land the Scottish Grand National by just under three lengths. This season has not seen him shine as much and has failed to hit the frame on all four starts.

The Vieux Lion Rouge form has since been reversed when they met last time out in the trial for this at Haydock Park, Blaklion was runner up that afternoon, even Gas Line Boy was in front of him by a considerable wide margin. It is hard to feel he can reproduce anything that showed he was a serious contender for this year’s renewal, but Paul Nicholl’s can get one ready, if he stands and stays you cannot disregard him with Brian Hughes booked.

BLAKLION

For me he looks a winner if he is able to get the trip. His four runs this year have seen him run exceptionally well on merit and deserves to take his chances. He has course experience when finishing third in the Mildmay last year when behind Native River, He has progressed with every run this season and with his third at Wetherby when behind Definitely Red to ten lengths when giving 12lb away to the winner on boxing day in the Grade 3 Meyrick Chase.

The best was yet to come, he looked to have the measure of his field when traveling well in the closing stages at Haydock when denied by three and a quarter lengths to Vieux Lion Rouge when giving 6lb to the winner. He gets 3lb back this afternoon which on paper might not be significant enough to reverse the form, but the fact he has been trained especially for a crack at this speaks volumes and the trainer can emulate his success back in 2002 when Bindaree went on to win.

TENOR NIVERNAIS

Has been ultra-consistent this year and has got better and better when they stepped him up to three miles which saw him win the Swinley Chase at Ascot when beating Go Conquer by thirty lengths. He was surprisingly turned over at Kelso in the Listed Premier Chase when an odds on shot to land the race for Venetia Williams. The winner was not disgraced next time out when finishing behind Yala Enki at Kelso last month.

He has a form line though LE MERCUREY, another entry for Paul Nicholl’s. They met last time out at Kelso with nine lengths between them on the day and they meet on the same terms this afternoon. Le Mercurey is another that has been running consistently this season and ran a good second behind Many Clouds in the Listed Giveaway Chase over 24.8f. There was just the three and a half lengths between them that day. He equipped himself well when splitting Native River and Bristol De Mai in the Grade 2 Denman Chase back in February. His is a sound jumper with no mishaps in his career and we have to see how the market values him.

ROGUE ANGEL

Last year’s Irish Grand National winner has been on the back foot all season, but showed some old form when finishing fifth in the Grade A Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park. Now despite twenty lengths behind the eventual winner Champagne West, he was also just three lengths behind Willie Mullins Pleasant Company.

He has the capability to run a big race and he has only fallen once in his career all the way back in 2013. Solid, stays well and could be the dark horse in the race for Irish trainer Mouse Morris.

 

 

SUMMARY

It’s a ballet, a race that to tip the winner is not that easy, I feel the main bet will come in Blaklion purely that he has been consistent enough to have a real go in this, it would also be great to see Noel Fehily in the winning enclosure after a cracking season in the saddle. I really want to put three or four up for the race, but I will dutch with Le Mercurey of Paul Nicholls. The fact that Nicholl’s would love a big run from all his contender’s here to close the gap on Nicky Henderson.

Blaklion: 1.5pts each way @ 14/1 (BOG)

Le Mercurey: 1pt each way @ 66/1 (BOG)

 

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Horse Racing Preview – Aintree Festival (Grand National Day) – 8th April 2017

Horse Racing Preview – Aintree Festival (Grand National Day)

Our horse racing preview comes from the Aintree Festival on Grand National Day. It was pleasant to eventually get a nice winner with Fox Norton yesterday, its not been an easy past two weeks leading up to the festival with the winners being limited, but hopefully we get a bit better run of the green this afternoon on the selection front. The first race on the card would probably scare most punters, twenty two runner handicaps over three miles is not the best of races to fathom out.

Aintree Festival  1.45pm – Gaskells Handicap Hurdle

We start off the day with exactly that, most of these had already competed at the Cheltenham festival and if we were to go on that form I would prefer to look around the mid race finishers. Paul Nicholl’s Zarkandar will have to give weight all round here, the last winner to do so was back in 2012 when Cape Tribulation carried the agonizing weight of 11st 12lb to victory. This has has only been done once since 2000, even though it is not an impossible task I just think he is a bit long in the tooth these days and better off around smaller fields.

Dan Skelton’s No Hassle Hoff is definitely a worthy favourite since The Worlds End went on to win the Sefton Novices Hurdle yesterday. He was seriously put in his place that day when nine lengths off the winner.T he third Ballyarthur has ran creditably again when finishing runner up at Haydock, the fourth Progress Drive has also franked the form when winning at Ayr last month.

The five year old son of Craigsteel should be spot on off the back of both his runs this year in graded company. The one solid negative is that there has only been two winning favourites over the past sixteen years and only one five year old has managed to succeed, even though its only a trend, trends are here to be broken but even though he gets plenty of weight I will over look him once more.

I thought No Comment ran well in the Martin Pipe when finishing seventh to Champagne Classic, even though he was beaten twelve lengths, it does not reflect that he had no passage through off of the turn. He has had the benefit of a run around Aintree when second in a maiden hurdle over 20f. Geraghty had to miss the Cheltenham festival and presently sits on the top jockey rostrum here at Aintree after two days. I would call it compensation time as he probably would have been lucky at Cheltenham and his ride here for Philip Hobbs looks the one to beat.

What a Season Fergal O’Brien is having and saddles here Barney Dwan who was just denied in the Pertemps when Presenting Percy came with a perfect timed challenge to land the race in good style. He will have to concede an extra 5lb to The Tourard Man this time around who stayed on to finish a good fourth, six and a half lengths off Barney Dwan, but even so I would be surprised to see that form get overturned this afternoon. I do have a concern though that this is not his trip and its probably on the threshold of his better index which I feel is around 19f, just a bit too far for me.

Desert Cry was seen here last Spring when beaten over course and distance by just over nine lengths, but since then he has racked up three wins which has seen him raised to a mark of 150, 25lb since just before Christmas. His win last time came in a 0-140 handicap at Ayr on heavy ground and with his 10lb penalty he could be very vulnerable on this quicker ground. For Good Measure was behind both The Tourard Man and Barney Dwan last month and realistically he looks up against it to reverse the form at the weights.

No Comment : 2pt each way @ 10/1 (BOG)

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Aintree Festival 2.25pm – Mersey Novice’s Hurdle

We move swiftly on to the 2.25 and an excellent Mersey’s Novice’s Hurdle renewal which has attracted a very strong field. I am not convinced that the ground will not be soft enough for Alan King’s Messire Des Obeaux this afternoon, with most of his hurdles form coming on softer ground, you cannot take away that he ran a blinder in the Neptune.  But the ground and trip saw him out on the day and once more he will be tackling quicker conditions which brings me to over look him. On the other hand Lough Derg Spirit who represents leading trainer Nicky Henderson who also has the interesting Cultivator in the race could go well.

The former won a shade easily at Musselburgh despite only two and a half lengths between them at the line. Pending how he runs here he will return to Scotland later in the month to compete in the Scottish Champion Hurdle where he could be a warm order. One I am interested in here is Henderson”s second string which see’s Barry Geraghty get back on him for the first time since his bumper win two seasons ago. He gained his first success at Ascot when winning a Novices hurdle over 19.8f when beating Paul Nicholl’s Bagad Bihoue who was coming off  the back of a good win at Wincanton. He went on to run well in the Grade 2 NIM Winter Hurdle at Sandown park when he finished just under three lengths behind Messire Des Obeaux.

He was beaten once again by Messire Des Obeaux when they met in the Challows Novices Hurdle at Newbury on New Years Eve going behind by a bigger margin of twenty four lengths. He was not convincing next time out at Kempton Park last month when just holding off Just Before Dawn. I would like to think he could improve more than he has shown, with Geraghty booked to ride you could probably not write him off that easily. But realistically he would have to seriously step up to overturn some good novices in this race.

Two more that come into the equation is Ben Pauling’s Le Breuil and man of the moment ColIn Tizzard’s Finian’s Oscar. The former represents a yard I have enjoyed following over the past two seasons, watching Barters Hill coming through the ranks and the likes of Willoughby Court landing the Neptune when beating the hugely fancied Neon Wolf, which we saw Messire Des Obeaux back in a good third. Le Breuil is coming off the back of comfortable wins at Sedgefield and Newbury when beating Benatar of Gary Moore’s by nine lengths. They meet again and I would like to think that the form could be reversed. He is a talented gelding, but its the ground concerns I have with him this afternoon.

Finally, we come to the selection in Colin Tizzard’s Finian’s Oscar. I actually tipped him up when he was supposed to run at last month’s festival, but Tizzard has held on to him and bypassed to bring him here on a flatter and quicker course. The unbeaten son of Oscar won the Grade 2 Tolworth Novices Hurdle on his second start when winning by five lengths. It was not the strongest of races that has already been documented, but I actually thought his win at Exeter in a Listed event was spot on. He was entitled to win at with a solid round of jumping, smooth as you like and now turns up here to attempt to keep his 100% record intact and I think he can.

Finian’s Oscar : 3pt Win @ 7/2 (BOG)

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Aintree Festival 4.20pm – The Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle

The next race I want to move on to is the 4.20 The Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle. Now Despite Colin Tizzard having a cracking second day, I am going to stick to his stable jockey here when Robbie Power gets up on Jessica Harrington’s Supasundae. A horse i have followed ever since he won a Listed bumper at Ascot three seasons ago. I really fancied him to win the Champion Bumper that year, but he probably bumped into one of the strongest fields that year with the likes of Yanworth, Moon Racer, Modus and Bellshill in the race, horses that went on to make it over hurdles. The following year I had already backed him to land the Supreme and he did himself justice in again, one of the strongest supreme’s for a while, which saw the winner Altior, Buveur D’Air, Tombstone, Min, North Hill Harvey and Petit Mouchoir in the race.

After his run at the Punchestown festival when again he disappointed, he made his re-appearance when failing to show any old sparkle trailing in a disappointing eighth in handicap company. He stayed around handicap company and got an average win at Punchestown on new years eve and followed that up when runner up to Sutton Place in the Grade 3 Limestone Lad Hurdle. Beaten again by Sutton Place a month later at Naas, and I was starting to give up on this talented seven year old.

Then it all paid off, the patience all the training came into one when he went away under Robbie Power to land the Coral Cup, had they found a key to him now he had been stepped up in trip. He will tackle three miles for the first time, I think he will see out the trip, has a good turn of foot and the step up in the Coral Cup worked. He’s a hold up performer and the race with a little pace would set him up nicely coming home in front hopefully.

The thing is they all have to beat Yanworth, Alan King’s talented seven year old should relish this stronger, flatter course. He never looked right from a long way out in the Champion Hurdle, in fact it was a route I would never have gone, but I am not the owner or trainer. This is the first time he has been out this late of the season, he usually finishes up at last month’s festival and a long summer break is on the card, but they must fancy their chances bringing him here, and why not, you have to be in it to win it. I would not be at all surprised to see a big run form Ptit Zig in this.

Paul Nicholl’s has won this race four times, but nothing over the past four renewals which has seen Nicky Henderson land the race twice in the past three years. This is a big chance for Nicholl’s to cut into that deficit for the trainers’ title and one that can get him close here is Ptit Zig. Every time he has competed in the Cleeve Hurdle he has come out and produced a season’s best. He has something to find with Cole Harden from their Cleeve Hurdle encounter, but this year he has not been given a hard time of it, they bypassed France and Cheltenham last month, this just might be a chuck in effect or a very shrewd piece of training.

Supasundae : 2pt Win @ 13/2 (BOG)

Ptit Zig : 1/2pt each way @ 20/1 (BOG)

 

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This offer applies to all bets placed from 10am on the day of race and only includes races shown live on ITV Racing unless otherwise stated by bet365 . Best price or joint best price will be matched from the following list of Bookmakers: Ladbrokes, William Hill, Paddy Power, Coral, Sky Bet and Boylesports. Best Odds Guaranteed still applies.

Excludes Enhanced Price Win Only or Enhanced Place Terms markets that are priced separately to the Fixed Odds market, live shows, Ante-Post prices, competitor Enhanced Win prices, In-Play prices or any enhancement to the SP at settlement.

So place your Horse Racing bets safe in the knowledge that the BET365 price is the best price. T&Cs apply.