Today’s horse racing preview comes from three meetings with four selections from Nottingham, Goodwood and The Curragh. The blog returns three nice winners of 8/1, 3/1 and 15/2 from four selections; even though I was disappointed with the ride Ryan Moore gave Fantasy keeper, the market drift told the final story from 9/4 to 10/3.
13.50 Nottingham – Bettinggods.com Free Racing Tips EBF Maiden Stakes (5f)
There was significant money at Catterick nine days ago for Mark Johnston’s W G Grace, 16/1 into 9/1 when only managing fourth. That was in Novice company, diverts here into maiden company in which he should be taking full advantage of.
Looking over the run once more, PJ was not that hard on him, once beaten he was just ridden out hands and heels, big claims here this afternoon.
Main dangers, both Bodybuilder and Peter Leonard have run well enough, Richard Hannon trains the former here who finished fifth in Novice company at Salisbury, the winner Nine Below Zero has won again at Windsor recently so I can justify why he’s as short as 7/4. Fahey’s Peter Leonard will have to improve immensely after finishing last at York.
W G Grace : 1.5pts each way @ 5/1 (BOG)
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14.00 Goodwood – NDPCC Speak Out Stay Safe Maiden Fillies Stakes (9.9f)
Amanda Perratt’s Lightening Dance had been put in as a strong favourite to go one better than when finishing second on debut at Salisbury, but it’s the horse that finished just two lengths off of him in Trilliant who is almost 7pts bigger in the market.
Both horses were positive in the market, but Ed Giles daughter of Dansili was trading quite low in the closing stages, now she will have to step up to reverse the form, but her odds should not be seven times in value as the tissue has summarised.
If they both fail to perform then the main danger would have to be Clive Cox’s Italian Heiress who’s third on reappearance at Windsor was encouraging enough to see her step up in trip.
Trilliant : 1pt each way @ 15/2 (BOG)
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14.45 Curragh – TRM Excellence In Equine Nutrition Irish European Breeders Fund Fillies Handicap (7f)
The way Johnny Murtagh’s Tobacco Bay won at Tipperary was impressive, she left her rivals for dead in a matter of strides, she is stepping back half a furlong this afternoon, but if she’s up on the pace it should be a formality.
Oh Grace and Duchess of France look best of the remainder, the latter looks less exposed after her just defeat in a 0-75 handicap at Ayr six days ago.
Tobacco Bay : 2pt win @ 9/2 (BOG)
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15.55 Curragh – TRM Ballyogan Stakes (Group 3) (6f)
Only Mine will be a tough nut to crack if she brings her second to Gordon Lord Byron from the Group 2 Greenlands Stakes over course and distance last month, but it was not the best of renewals in my opinion and could be very vulnerable, good point is that Pour Moi as a sire is going well this year.
One I did like was Peticoatgovernment who looked to have been unlucky in a big handicap over course and distance last month. My reason for the last minute change is purely on the ground, it caught her out in the closing stages, so I decided to take her on with Ballydoyle’s Alphabet.
Now I know you should never change your mind, but Alphabet won a good handicap at Naas on this year’s opening run, despite not visiting the winning enclosure since she was totally out classed in the Group 2 Sandy Lanes which was a competitive renewal this year.
Then was not beaten that far in a 50k handicap over course and distance two runs back, the only concern is her draw in stall 4 might not be favourable, but she’s very capable handicapper and has a very able pilot in Seamus Heffernan.
Alphabet : 2pts each way @ 8/1 (BOG)
Good luck today, Gamble Responsibly
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