All articles by: Darren Chettleburgh

Horse Racing Preview – Nottingham – 11th October 2017

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Today’s horse racing preview has four selections over three different meetings, Nottingham, Ludlow and the night meeting at Kempton. Just catching up on the results for Monday, the ratings went well with two winners both succeeding at 9/4 which is pleasing to see, something is working

 

14.25 Ludlow – Welsh Border Area Point-to-Point Awards 2017 Mares Handicap Hurdle (21.2f) (0-130)

Secret Door (122)
Wizards Sliabh (118)
Poetic Lady (113)

With just 4lb separating the top two in my ratings this looks a good looking hurdle contest. Fergal O’Brien’s Wizard’s Sliabh will make her seasons re-appearance this afternoon, She returns to Ludlow which saw her run a creditable second to Ludlow specialist Tara View who has gone on to win a 0-135 around here and finish fourth in a competitive Grade 2 at Newbury when behind recent French winner Snow Leopardess, Wizard’s Sliabh was seventh in that Newbury contest. If she is fit and ready she would have to be feared the most to the selection.

Poetic Lady comes here off the back of two solid wins, her win on her handicap debut saw her beat Seamus Mullins Kentford Heiress who has gone on to a good third in a 0-145 hurdle when finishing behind Holly Bush Henry who has also won two on the spin this year. She would not want the ground to dry out too much this afternoon, however she still looks off a competitive mark of 113. The selection though comes in the way of Harry Fry’s Secret Door who won over the course back in March in this category over two miles.

She was subsequently stepped up to two and a quarter miles back in April when taking a valuable prize at Haydock when just holding on to beat highly rated Poppy Kay of Philip Hobbs. Her last run of last season came at Market Rasen when running a big race off a 7lb penalty being denied to just over one length to now 128 rated hurdler Sandymount of Tom George’s. Back in fifth was 140 rated Work In Progress who unseated Harry Skelton when travelling well in a Listed hurdle a couple of weeks ago at Market Rasen.

Poetic Lady will once more run her race and has to be feared with Noel Fehlly doing the steering, Wizard’s Sliabh has a big race in her I think this season and is feared the most, but the selection goes to the improving Secret Door who can steps up in trip again here, and she does look better the further she goes.

SECRET DOOR : 2pt Win @ SP (BOG)

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15.50 Nottingham – 32 Redsport.com Handicap (0-75) (8.3f)

Dragon’s Voice (86) (Could be NR)
Mikmak (80)
Tadaany (78)
Caledonia Duchess (76) Reserve

Graham Lee has definitely enjoyed returning here the past two seasons with taking this race for trainers Ed McMahon & Jonjo O’Neill, this time around he rides for another jump trainer in Philip Hide who saddles Dragon’s Voice here. He has notched up three wins this season which included in this category, but he also won a 0-85 last time out at Windsor when off a mark of 75.

When he won back in May in a 0-70 Classified Stakes race the handicapper looked to have totally unassessed him when giving him a winnable mark of just 72. He duly exploited that when finishing third on his return to Nottingham over the distance. Now off a mark of 74 he once more went on to Windsor and won well. His next two runs were poor when stepped into 0-80 company, but he bounced back on easing ground to land a 0-85 handicap on his second seasons appearance at Windsor on Monday, now with only a two day break, will be interesting to see if he runs.

If Dragon’s Voice fails to appear today at Nottingham, then the selection goes to Willie Muir’s Mikmak who will relish any under foot conditions being by Makfi. His two best runs have come on soft ground this year when runner up on both occasions, once in a 0-80 and a 0-90, but they were over 10f. We would have to go back to this time last year when last seen on turf over a mile, excuses can be made on the quicker ground that day, and the fact he was competing at a much higher level than this.

Most of his runs over the 8f has come around the all weather, and he has equipped himself very well, but now the fact of the combination of soft ground, the fact he has dropped off 72 today and I have him around 80, in fairness he has a lot going for him if he can handle the 8f on turf.

Tadaany ran well last time at Redcar finishing third off a mark of 71, he is a good to soft winner last year at Ayr when off a 5lb higher mark, he can definitely get competitive off today’s 69, but Ruth Carr’s present form of 3-80 is a big concern. Caledonia Duchess would be considered if Dragons’s Voice pulls, she gets in here 5lb out of the handicap, but the services of David Egan is a plus, Caledonia Duchess is still a maiden after fourteen career runs and has not shown anything to suggest a win on the all weather or turf is imminent.

It’s all about if Dragon’s Voice turns up here, he will be put forward as the main bet in the race, however if he fails then Mikmak takes his place, who comes into this off a workable mark and will relish the conditions more than most, Tadaany will be trying to take Ruth Carr off the cold list, but does look up against it here.

DRAGONS VOICE : 2pt Win @ SP (With A Run) – MIKMAK : 1pt Win @ SP (BOG) (Second Choice)

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16.20 Nottingham – 32 Redsport.com Handicap (D11) (8.3f) (0-75)

William Booth (80)
Groor / Cornelius (77)
Harlequin Striker (76)

This is a small investment contest to be fair here at Nottingham, however William Booth has moved stables from Daniel Loughnanes over the summer and is now trained by Ivan Furtado. This will be his third career visit to Nottingham, both runs have come over an extended 10f around here and did not really show anything special when down the field on handicap debut back in July, that is when the move was made and Furtado is renown of taking on new horses and reviving them.

If he ran up to his maiden at Beverley back in June when finishing third of five over an extended mile he would have to be taken seriously here, the front two War of Succession (76) and Luminous (66) should mean him coming here off 68 he has to have a live chance. His all weather maiden run when behind the likes of Makaarim (83) & Pete So High (78) again should be good enough to make him go close under today’s pilot Franny Norton.

Groor and Cornelius have been running very below par, however they both have ability ratings, Groor was going well until slipping up and un-shipping Harry Bentley off the bend at Epsom last month. The winner that day Lady Perignon has run well against superior horses that are weighted 18lb her superior, the runner up has finished behind the smart 91 rated Moolazim. Groor was rated in the mid nineties last year, he has been on the decline, this was also a horse that was competing out in Meydan last year when beating now 95 rated Mutasayyid.

Cornelius last saw 8f back on the all weather at Kempton last August when finishing fourth when off a mark of 66, with a career highest mark of 71 he is not really setting the world alight to the effect he can land a blow here. Last but not least Harlequin Striker who recorded his last win back in June of last year at Windsor when winning off 78, he followed up when running really well off a 5lb penalty when running Fingal’s Cave to a neck off 83.

Most of his races over the past twelve months have been at a higher level, this is a good drop back in grade and if he can re-produce a good run off 72 he deserves to be in the mix. I would like to think William Booth can take this under Franny Norton, the main danger has to be Groor, even his Meydan run would be far superior to this lot of mid-handicappers, Cornelius and Harlequin Striker, especially the latter, can be involved.

WILLIAM BOOTH : 1pt each way @ SP (BOG)

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17.20 Kempton – Close Brothers Business Finance Handicap (0-55) (7f)

Pulsating (68)
Belgravian (64)
Never Folding (63)

This is literally the lowest of the low, poor handicappers that will never achieve above a level of mid sixties, however a few have, especially Daniel Steele’s Pulsating, which is why I have given him a rating of 68 when just coming here off a moderate 54. He has competed twice over today’s trip and failed miserably, but these came in 0-70 handicaps, obviously he is just a standard horse that needs a bit of luck, jockey booking of Liam Keniry is not a bad plus, if he runs up to what marks he has ran off in the past he won’t get a better chance of exploiting today’s 54.

One I do like in this is Belgravian, now never go against the top rated, but I am going to make an exception here. Two runs back at Chelmsford when competing over 8f he ran really well off 57, finishing close to Charles Hills Bradfield Magic, with a drop of 4lb and once more Oisin Murphy in the plate I really feel we could see him go exceptionally close.

Never Folding was ridden by Oisin Murphy at Kempton back in April when finishing fifth off 62, the winner that day Arctic Sea now posts a rating of 77, he is 0-9 and looking to turn things around here off a moderate 52, 10lb lower than early last season, however Oisin has elected to ride Belgravian which speaks volumes

BELGRAVIAN : 1pt each way @ SP (BOG)

 

Best of Luck, Bet Responsibly

 

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Horse Racing Preview – Leicester – 10th October 2017

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Today’s horse racing preview has four selections over three meetings which come from Leicester, Catterick & Brighton.

 

14.10 Brighton – Gary Atkins Birthday Handicap (0-65) (5.1f)

Taajub (73)
Little Miss Daisy (69)
Something Lucky (65)

Peter Crate’s ten year old Taajub was seen winning a 0-75 over course and distance back in May and has been struggling ever since in the mid seventies, however he drops back down to a mark of 67 this afternoon, and with the rating I have, he definitely looks to have a chance to record another win this season. Little Miss Daisy looked out of her depth when competing in a 0-75 at Sandown last month, it’s her run prior at Ffos Las that would give a cracking chance here.

She was second that day behind Gnaad who went on to win a 0-75 and probably ran up to a 72 mark, he has since competed in a 0-95 running up to a status of around 85, so in theory Little Miss Daisy would have to be considered. One that could outrun her odds is Something Lucky who gets into this off just 8st 6lb under claiming pilot David Egan.

He does have something to find with Everkyllachy, but does get 12lb more this time around, and I would not be surprised at all if the each way thieves have a cracking bet on her, overall this should for me go to Taajub, he has been keeping a solid level this season, the main danger comes from Little Miss Daisy.

TAAJUB : 1pt Win @ SP (BOG)

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14.35 Catterick – Bet At Racinguk.com Nursery Handicap (0-95) (7.1f)

El Chapo (84)
Ventura Knight (76)
Star of Zaam (72)

Just the five runners and you could make an account for all of them, but the tentative vote goes to Richard Fahey’s El Chapo. The trainer is looking for success four in six renewals and won this last year with In First Place. He has improved with every run since turning to handicaps and got his just reward when landing a 0-85 over course and distance two weeks ago. Obviously by looking at it, the handicapper has still given him a chance off 76 to win again.

Mark Johnston’s Ventura Knight won two low graded handicaps and even attempted a crack at Listed class which failed miserably finishing a wayward last, back to Doncaster when running over a mile she never seemed happy at the trip, back to 7f this afternoon is going to suit, but having to give too much weight and the fact that he has not been running up to his current mark makes him very vulnerable for me.

Star of Zaam has not been beaten that far in a couple of 0-80 handicaps this season, but he will have to step up more than most to get his head in front here, its a tough one as I do fear Ventura Knight on what he has achieved to date, and with De Sousa booked. But Paul Hanagan is back with the old firm here on El Chapo and with now getting his head in front he can build on it .

EL CHAPO : 2pt Win @ SP (BOG)

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15.55 Leicester – Squirrel Handicap (11.9f) (0-110)

Sumbal (105)
Soldier In Action (103)
Blakeney Point (102)

A tight race this one. I was taken with the way David Simcock’s Sumbal ran last time out when third at Doncaster in a competitive conditions race which was won by Mount Logan. It’s been over two years since he landed the Group 2 Prix Greffulhe and was unlucky not to add the Group 3 Prix du Prince d’Orange to his resume in the same season. Its hard to figure out his best index as his best runs have come at 9.9f, with one completion over today’s index when finishing down the field in the Group 2 Grand Prix de Chantilly, however there was encouragement last time to feel he can run well again here.

Soldier in Action last win came over 14f when winning the Qatar Summer Handicap at this years Goodwood festival, On paper his best run this year has come in the Old Newton Cup when just denied by Marco Botti’s Dylan Mouth, Blakeney Point was back in fourth on that occasion to four lengths when getting 9lb at the weights. Only 8lb this time around so its hard to see realistically that form being reversed here.

I would like to think that there are many flaws in the form of many here, so the tentative vote goes to Sumbal to improve on what he showed last time out at Doncaster, Blakeney Point and Soldier in Action have their own private battle with the latter looking to come out on top once more.

SUMBAL : 2pt Win @ SP (BOG)

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17.00 Leicester – Red Deer Handicap (0-70) (6f)

Borough Boy (84)
Desperados Destiny (79)
Whitecrest (76)

Derek Shaw’s Borough Boy does not win that often, in fact his last recorded win came on the all weather when landing a 0-65 handicap at Southwell back in April. The last time he won on turf came at Haydock in a 0-70 handicap over 6f on soft ground in 2015, these days he is more seen around the all weather, but on his day he can be competitive.

One of serious interest is Michael Dods Desperados Destiny who was seen finishing runner up at Carlisle in a 0-65 handicap on heavy ground. Staying around this sphere and class he has to be feared the most under 3lb claimer Callum Rodriguez. Last one to look at is Whitecrest who ran very creditable in a 0-80 two runs back going behind by one and a half lengths to 82 rated Marie of Lyon, that is useful form, even though Marie of Lyon showed no attitude over last weekend when given a very tame ride by Ryan Moore.

Overall Desperados Destiny and Whitecrest have to be given strong consideration, but the vote goes for an each way bet on Borough Boy who is capable of landing a weak race like this.

BOROUGH BOY : 1pt each way @ SP(BOG)

 

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Horse Racing Preview – Pontefract – 9th October 2017

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Today’s horse racing preview has three selections over three meetings, from Pontefract, Musselburgh & Salisbury. Sunday was a disappointing day, not because the results placed, but the fact the highest ratings had run well and I did not play the obvious, fault in my part.

 

14.55 Pontefract – Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap (0-95) (8f)

The Grape Escape (97)
Me Too Nagasaki (89)
Shamrokh (85)

Richard Hannon’s three year old was last seen winning at Sandown when taking a 0-95 handicap when fending off Sharja Bridge of Roger Varian’s who was coming into the race after winning a good looking maiden at Nottingham. His only run on soft ground came as a juvenile when finishing mid field in the Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes. To be fair his Esher Cup run this year would be enough to land this race with ease, he has I think a few pounds on his rivals here despite having to give weight all round.

Luca Cumani’s Me Too Nagasaki ran well over 10f recently when finishing third in a 0-85 hcp at Goodwood, a head back in fourth that day was George Scott’s Road To Dubai who won a 0-80 race at Redcar over the weekend, but for me his Doncaster run would have to come into consideration here when winning a 0-95 on heavy ground when beating 89 rated Wahash by a head, the fact he is rated just 86, there could still be a reasonable run in him this afternoon.

Last but certainly not least, Shamrokh, who to be fair has a lot of weight to play with here, and is definitely rated for me higher than his current 74 suggests. Fair enough he finished last of nine at Ascot in what now looks a competitive 0-90 handicap with the likes of the winner Addeyebb now posting a rating of around 99 after landing the Silver Cambridgeshire. Shamkokh was eight lengths off the winner that day when running off 83. However, a return to the all weather I think if not showing anything here could land him his second career success as he has won over the mile but as I said on the all weather, but off 74 and I have him rated 11lb higher there is a surely a big run there on the cards.

THE GRAPE ESCAPE : 2pt Win @ 2/1 (BOG)

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15.05 Salisbury – Bathwick Tyres Handicap (0-60) (6.9f)

Vixen (72)
Mulsanne Chase (69)
Intimately (65)

There looks some very well handicapped horses in this race on what they have achieved over this distance on previous runs especially the top rated here Vixen who represents Eve Johnson-Houghton this afternoon. The daughter of Kodiac was last seen when beaten a nose when under Josephine Gordon over course and distance, that was over 6f, she has run over 7f as a juvenile when finishing fifth in a maiden at Newbury when eight lengths off a now 75 rated horse. She steps back up in trip and the ground looks to have suited her in the past, off 57 she should be exploiting the current mark.

Mulsanne Chase posted a 68 when finishing last in a 0-75 handicap at Newbury back in July when having an official rating of 72, this is a big drop in class and off 59 she has been given a big reprieve by the handicapper, but her odds reflect otherwise being 40/1 here. Intimately is one that definitely does not deserve to be a double figure price, the John Portman four year old was last seen over this trip when finishing fourth when off a mark of 58 at Yamouth, posting an actual run off around 65, her mark of 59 here she can be involved under claimer George Wood.

This is a strong opportunity for Vixen to go one better now stepping back up in trip, I would not be surprised at all to see Intimately run well off her current mark of 59, Mulsanne Chase would have to step up a lot, but on this ground anything is possible.

VIXEN : 2pt Win @ 5/1 (BOG)

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15.40 Musselburgh – Wise Betting At Racinguk.com Handicap (0-65) (5f)

Pavers Pride (67)
Luv u Always (64)
Reckless Serenade (64)

This is a very trappy affair, Pavers Pride gets the top rating purely off the back of his fourth last time out at Redcar in a 0-70 handicap, he won a maiden around Thirsk back in August and the fact the winner has posted a win since off 66 he has to be considered and looks way over priced at 10/1 for Noel Wilson.

The best handicapped horse in the race is Luv u Always who posted a run of 64 last time when off an official mark of 64, gets into this off just 46 which is a stone and a half out of what he has achieved this year. Reckless Serenade ran well when winning a 0-75 handicap at Hamilton around this time last year, however has not really shown that form since, but he drops back to the dead 5f from what he has been competing over recently of 6f.

An each way bet here on Pavers Pride who has been running well and really not being beaten that far on past two runs, Luv u Always is definitely the main danger running off this mark of 46, and Reckless Serenade could outrun his double figure price.

PAVERS PRIDE : 1pt each way @ 10/1 (BOG)

 

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