Today’s horse racing preview has three selections over three meetings, from Pontefract, Musselburgh & Salisbury. Sunday was a disappointing day, not because the results placed, but the fact the highest ratings had run well and I did not play the obvious, fault in my part.
14.55 Pontefract – Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap (0-95) (8f)
The Grape Escape (97)
Me Too Nagasaki (89)
Richard Hannon’s three year old was last seen winning at Sandown when taking a 0-95 handicap when fending off Sharja Bridge of Roger Varian’s who was coming into the race after winning a good looking maiden at Nottingham. His only run on soft ground came as a juvenile when finishing mid field in the Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes. To be fair his Esher Cup run this year would be enough to land this race with ease, he has I think a few pounds on his rivals here despite having to give weight all round.
Luca Cumani’s Me Too Nagasaki ran well over 10f recently when finishing third in a 0-85 hcp at Goodwood, a head back in fourth that day was George Scott’s Road To Dubai who won a 0-80 race at Redcar over the weekend, but for me his Doncaster run would have to come into consideration here when winning a 0-95 on heavy ground when beating 89 rated Wahash by a head, the fact he is rated just 86, there could still be a reasonable run in him this afternoon.
Last but certainly not least, Shamrokh, who to be fair has a lot of weight to play with here, and is definitely rated for me higher than his current 74 suggests. Fair enough he finished last of nine at Ascot in what now looks a competitive 0-90 handicap with the likes of the winner Addeyebb now posting a rating of around 99 after landing the Silver Cambridgeshire. Shamkokh was eight lengths off the winner that day when running off 83. However, a return to the all weather I think if not showing anything here could land him his second career success as he has won over the mile but as I said on the all weather, but off 74 and I have him rated 11lb higher there is a surely a big run there on the cards.
THE GRAPE ESCAPE : 2pt Win @ 2/1 (BOG)
15.05 Salisbury – Bathwick Tyres Handicap (0-60) (6.9f)
Mulsanne Chase (69)
There looks some very well handicapped horses in this race on what they have achieved over this distance on previous runs especially the top rated here Vixen who represents Eve Johnson-Houghton this afternoon. The daughter of Kodiac was last seen when beaten a nose when under Josephine Gordon over course and distance, that was over 6f, she has run over 7f as a juvenile when finishing fifth in a maiden at Newbury when eight lengths off a now 75 rated horse. She steps back up in trip and the ground looks to have suited her in the past, off 57 she should be exploiting the current mark.
Mulsanne Chase posted a 68 when finishing last in a 0-75 handicap at Newbury back in July when having an official rating of 72, this is a big drop in class and off 59 she has been given a big reprieve by the handicapper, but her odds reflect otherwise being 40/1 here. Intimately is one that definitely does not deserve to be a double figure price, the John Portman four year old was last seen over this trip when finishing fourth when off a mark of 58 at Yamouth, posting an actual run off around 65, her mark of 59 here she can be involved under claimer George Wood.
This is a strong opportunity for Vixen to go one better now stepping back up in trip, I would not be surprised at all to see Intimately run well off her current mark of 59, Mulsanne Chase would have to step up a lot, but on this ground anything is possible.
VIXEN : 2pt Win @ 5/1 (BOG)
15.40 Musselburgh – Wise Betting At Racinguk.com Handicap (0-65) (5f)
Pavers Pride (67)
Luv u Always (64)
Reckless Serenade (64)
This is a very trappy affair, Pavers Pride gets the top rating purely off the back of his fourth last time out at Redcar in a 0-70 handicap, he won a maiden around Thirsk back in August and the fact the winner has posted a win since off 66 he has to be considered and looks way over priced at 10/1 for Noel Wilson.
The best handicapped horse in the race is Luv u Always who posted a run of 64 last time when off an official mark of 64, gets into this off just 46 which is a stone and a half out of what he has achieved this year. Reckless Serenade ran well when winning a 0-75 handicap at Hamilton around this time last year, however has not really shown that form since, but he drops back to the dead 5f from what he has been competing over recently of 6f.
An each way bet here on Pavers Pride who has been running well and really not being beaten that far on past two runs, Luv u Always is definitely the main danger running off this mark of 46, and Reckless Serenade could outrun his double figure price.
PAVERS PRIDE : 1pt each way @ 10/1 (BOG)
Best of Luck, Bet Responsibly