All articles by: Darren Chettleburgh

Horse Racing Preview – Kelso – 8th October 2017

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Today’s horse racing preview has four selections coming from two jump meetings in Uttoxeter and Kelso.

 

13.35 Kelso – Newcastle Arms Coldstream Handicap Hurdle (0-120) (16.2f)

Prince Khurram (129)
Martila (122)
Desert Island Duck (121)

Donald McCain has a 24.8% strike rate around Kelso over the past five seasons, which does reflect consistency around this sphere, he saddles here my top rated Prince Khurram who was last seen when finishing third behind Mirsaale in a 0-145 handicap over course and distance last month. He was also seen last year around the spring when finishing fourth in this company but on heavy ground which he equipped himself quiet well going down by only six lengths, he still has much to offer

Desert Island Dusk market price of 28/1 is over looking the fact that Maurice Barnes trained the 2015 winner of this race, and today’s jockey Dale Irving rode the 2014 winner, both team up here with an entry that won over this trip on good ground at Hexham back in the summer in a 0-130 handicap when off a mark of 106. He is another that has been beaten by Mirsaale this season to over forty lengths, but that day he was taking on horses that was rated 15lb his superior, I would expect him to outrun those odd this afternoon.

Pauline Robeson’s Martila has not been seen for almost a year, however her second at Ayr when behind Space Ship in a 0-150 handicap looks a little average considering the highest entrant was rating 137. Now if we go back to last years course and distance run when competing in a 0-145 she was seventeen lengths behind the smart Wisty who is now rated 143 as a chaser and ended up as a 138 hurdler.

Overall Prince Khurram has 6lb at the weights due to the claim of Lorcan Murtagh, however Martila gets the services of Brian Hughes who rides the mare for the first time this afternoon, the ground should have no concerns being sired by Marteline, Desert Island Dusk could outrun his double figure price on his old form.

MARTILA : 1pt each way @ SP (BOG)

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14.05 Kelso – Newcastle Arms Coldstream Handicap Hurdle (0-120) (16.2f)

Weapon Of Choice (120)
Bohornagore (114)
Danceintothelight (104)

I have Weapon of Choice highly rated here, Dianne Sayer’s nine year old looked to have plenty in hand when scoring at Perth in this company back in July under Brian Hughes. He was given a spin around Carlisle on the flat over 9f for what apparent reason I have no idea, but failed and finished tailed off. With three attempts around Kelso at this trip he has not been beaten by far on all occasions, in fact a combined four and three quarter lengths. He obviously seems to find one too good around here, however 107 is a very leanient mark and should go close again.

At the bottom of the weights we have Philip Kirby’s Bohornagore who was last seen when competing a much weaker race than this over two furlongs further last month. He will definitely have to show some of that old form, but steps into better class, Adam Nicol’s takes the ride. Last but not least last time Sedgfield winner Danceintothelight who was seen winning over much further than this that day. He ran well here last year, not on this card but over 20f, but again in much weaker company, does look vulnerable under a 5lb penalty.

WEAPON OF CHOICE : 1pt each way @ SP (BOG)

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16.00 Uttoxeter – Holdcroft Renault Handicap Hurdle (0-130) (23.2f)

Sporting Boy (113)
Royale Knight (106)
Muthabir (105)

Today’s NAP comes from Johnny Farrelly’s Sporting Boy, he has been quiet consistent around both codes. His run last time at Sedgefield was over three furlongs more which in hindsight is going to put him spot on again despite dropping back in trip. The ground seems to be the key for him to get off the mark for the first time since June last year when taking a 0-135 Chase at Newton Abbott, his last hurdle win came of a mark of 124 at Taunton two seasons ago and dropping into this off 122 looks a big chance of taking this race under Noel Fehily who has a very good record with the horse.

Main dangers has to come from Dr Richard Newland’s Royale Knight who has not won over hurdles since 2012, but did have a good run at Chepstow over 24f when finishing runner up two years ago when off this relevant mark of 119 and will handle the underfoot conditions. Muthabir won at Taunton this year off 115 and despite only raised 3lb it has seemed to of stopped him in his tracks significantly.

Sporting Boy would have to be the choice purely on bookings, but you cannot overlook Royale Knight who has slipped back to a win-able mark despite being five years since his last hurdle win.

SPORTING BOY : 4pt Win @ SP (BOG)

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16.20 Kelso – NSPCC School Service Handicap Chase (17.1f)

Forest Bihan (161) – Novice Ranks
Simply Ned (143)
Wisty (142)

The vast improving Wisty will be a tough nut to crack off his current mark of 143, he has taken to chasing like water off a ducks back notching up all three wins over the larger obstacles. With all of his wins coming at Cartmel, he was a winner around here as a hurdler when taking a 0-145 when beating Martila (Selection in the opener) by seventeen lengths.

The fact he has not been troubled at all in all three chase runs proves he is still on an upward curve, but once more has to deal with a 13lb rise, but has to be feared never-less. Forest Bihan has been competing around the novice Graded rank running behind the likes of Altior, San Benedeto. This will be his first real test around handicap chasers, a 140 rated hurdler which saw him fail on all of his hurdle runs in this country, he has to be feared getting into this off a mark of 154 if showing his recent novice form, but a tough race to start your career around this sphere.

Simply Ned returns for a third crack at this race, twice winner of this race off a mark of 157, he returns this time around 3lb lower mark, however Wisty is a serious improving type and all will have to be on their A Game to take away his unbeaten chase record.

On the overview and ratings, Forest Bihan has to be feared, but his current mark I have given him is based around novice company, Simpy Ned is ten years young, but if returning in good heart he would have to go close, but the 11lb having to give away to Wisty is a big ask. Wisty has to be the selection here, not because the fact he has won all his chases, the fact that off 143 it is very much exploitable mark to win again. a Small mention to last years winner Theflyingportrait who is 3lb lower than when winning this last year could find the ground a bit to testing this time around.

WISTY : 3pt Win @ SP (BOG)

 

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Horse Racing Preview – Ascot & Redcar – 7th October 2017

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Today’s horse racing preview comes from Ascot and Redcar, with three selections across both meetings.

 

13.50 Ascot – Hope and Homes For Children Rous Stakes (Listed) (5f)

I actually feel this race gets weaker and weaker every year it’s run, in seven runners of this race we are still awaiting for a favourite to take the lead and win, once more this comes on the shoulders of John Gosden’s Waady. He is definitely ground dependable and this showed when he won at Leicester over turning the favourite Kachy by a comfortable one and a half lengths. He ran well enough in the World Trophy Stakes at Newbury which was won with authority by Take Cover, back in fifth was Mirza just half a length and returns for another crack at this race after finishing a close third last year and as we saw with Take Cover 10 years old is no reflection if you still have the desire, but will have it all to do from Stall 1.

Waady for me is very hit and miss, that was his first recorded win for over two years and even though he does get his ground,, the 6/4 market check is worth taking on. Now there has never been a filly to win this race, a handful have tried but this has been a race competed by mares, not many fillies have taken their chances and one here that could change all that is Clive Cox’s improving filly Razzmatazz who won nicely at Kempton at odds of 50/1, showed that was no fluke when taking a big hike up in class and was just denied again by a length in the Listed Scarborough Stakes.

That was her first try at 5f after dropping back from 6f, she adapted herself well and showed plenty of speed in the early stages on this ground, I feel she will run her race again and at 10/1, I do not think she will be far away from what looks a very open renewal here at Ascot.

Mirza returns to try and go two places better, but the voodoo has shown that horses returning have failed to win this second time around, Waady gets stall 8 which is a good place to be, he loves the ground, gets Jim Crowley on board who has a knack of riding well on tv on a Saturday, and then we have this little filly Razzmatazz, I put her up when she ran second in the Doncaster Listed race and I cannot desert her now, she still looks open to improvement and running a 61.24 on only her fourth in this ground is surely an each way bet to nothing.

RAZZMATAZZ : 1pt each way @ 10/1 (BOG)

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14.25 Ascot – Gigaset Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) (11.9f)

Now Andre Fabre would not send over Waldgeist just for a day trip here at Ascot, this colt thrives in the autumn and once more should be too good for these exposed pattern contenders. His second in the Prix du Jockey Club is far superior than anything in this race has achieved this season, That Chantilly race is working out well, War Decree came out and won the Koffy Diamond Stakes in style, the fourth and sixth ran well in the Hampton Court Stakes thereafter.

Fourth in the Irish Derby behind St Leger winner Capri, Cracksman came out and won the Prix Niel, Taj Mahal finished fifth in the Irish Champion Stakes The form has stacked up in his favour, now all he has to do is show he is the best here, jockey bookings is mysterious as Maxim Guyon must have bigger fish to fry elsewhere. Can he be troubled in this? Realistically no, but stranger results have been coming in over the past few weeks, if there was one it would be Godolphin’s Secret Number, who’s third to Desert Encounter last week would be enough to go close under Gerard Mosse, however having to give 11lb to the filly is a tough ask.

WALDGEIST : 2pt Win @ 11/10 (BOG)

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15.20 Redcar – Totepool Two Year Old Trophy (Listed) (6f)

Consistency is the key here and the fact Paul Hanagan has elected Crownthorpe could be a tip in itself. He gets into this with no weight what so ever, just 8st 3lb and they have kept him busy over 7f on soft ground this season. Goes well in soft conditions, drops back to 6f for the very first time in his career, gets a good draw in stall 19, has to be there on the premises.

Dangers, I do not have that many really, Foxtrot Lady’s second to the smart Beshaayir recently has to warrant respect, Willie Haggas’s Green Fortune could return to form who looked totally out of his depth in the Group 3 Serenia Stakes, Richard Hannon’s Billy Dylan handles soft ground but again will have to improve to win this. There’s twenty three runners still declared, its a minefield to be honest, but I will stick with Crownthorpe at the bottom of the weights here to go close.

CROWNTHORPE : 1pt each way @ 8/1 (BOG)

 

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Horse Racing Preview – Chelmsford City & Ascot – 6th October 2017

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Today’s horse racing preview has three selections, coming from Chelmsford City and Ascot (Listed Murless Stakes).

 

15.45 Ascot – Londonmetric Noel Murless Stakes (Listed) (14.1f)

There looks chinks in a few armours here and on merit Eve Johnson Houghton’s On To Victory can once more stamp his authority which he has already shown when landing the Persian Punch Conditions Stakes at Salisbury last month. He looked to have plenty in hand that day and you have to consider that he was beating 108 rated Battersea in easy fashion by two and a quarter lengths going away.

The Gosden pair Weekender and Zenon are unknown contenders over this trip, with Weekender rated around 97 and Zenon around 95 they have a bit to find stepping up in trip, Raheen House first attempt at today’s trip came in the St Leger when finishing seventh, for me he just did not stay the trip and surprising that connections are attempting it again and the fact he has to also give weight all round to his rivals.

Ralph Beckett won this last year with Alyssa and is represented here once more with Mount Moriah who has already won over 14f this year at Ascot and equipped himself quiet well in the Gordon Stakes & Irish St Leger where he finished third on both occasions. The key here is the ground and On To Victory has bounced twice this season off the conditions and once more can grab success at the expense of probably Weekender and Mount Moriah chasing him home.

ON TO VICTORY : 2pt Win @ SP (BOG)

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17.45 Chelmsford City – Bet toteplacepot At Bedfred.com Auction Stakes (8f)

If the form line goes to plan then this is a good opportunity for Lucy Wadham’s Dance to Paris to get off the mark at the fourth attempt, here at Chelmsford City. This is a much easier task from her last run at Newmarket when running behind the likes of Magic Lily and Heather Lark. This will be her all weather debut and apart form Robyn Brisland’s Merkava, I cannot see much troubling the selection at the business end under jockey Josephine Gordon.

DANCE TO PARIS : 2pt Win @ SP (BOG)

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21.15 Chelmsford City- Book Your Christmas Party At CCR Maiden Stakes (7f)

Despite four runners there is a case that can be made for all, but Godolphin’s Perfect Sense was last seen when finishing runner up to Willie Haggas’s One Master at Yarmouth. He has already seen the backside of two Haggas’s runners this year and potentially I would have him rated a few pound higher than Haggas’s runner here in Diagnostic who finished second on debut at Chepstow behind the consistent Spinnaka. She takes on the boys this afternoon and could find Perfect Sense a bit too much to handle despite getting the services of Ryan Moore.

Ghaseedah has been disappointing and drops out of handicap company in a race she found too hot to handle at Thirsk back in August. She looks to have a few pounds to find on the front pair this evening at Chelmsford City which should just go to Godolphin.

PERFECT SENSE : 2pt Win @ SP (BOG)

 

Best of Luck, Bet Responsibly

 

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