All articles by: Darren Chettleburgh

Horse Racing Preview – Haydock & Ascot – 8th September 2017

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Today’s horse racing preview comes from two meetings, with selections coming from Haydock and Ascot.

 

13.50 Haydock – 32red Casino EBF Fillies Novice Stakes (7.9f)

If we were realistically going to stay around form then Roger Varian’s filly La Diva should be taking all the beating here. Her form from her debut run when three and a half lengths behind Carla Temptress at Newmarket would be serious to take on board, as the filly back in third, Bambino Lola came out and won in good style at Salisbury, the fourth Shepherd Market has also won recently.

The price will reflect her form and in my opinion she should be odds on to land this, however her defeat last time when only managing fourth was a little disappointing, but the third Finsbury Park has run well in a 0-95 Handicap since, which to be fair, she was running off a mark of just 78, which would put La Diva around the 76 sphere which is nothing really to write home about. We cannot take her debut run with confidence despite the form as she let herself down, so on reflection of that I am going to take her on.

If we looked at Alan Bailey’s Fleeting Freedom for example, she has already competed at Handicap level when just under five lengths behind Gold Town who now brings a mark of 98 to the table, the runner up Dragon’s Tail is probably officially rated by me at around 89, this would put Alan Bailey’s filly on a mark of around 86, she was rated 77 that day and still ran well, so on that theory would put her close to La Diva, however she looks very exposed after three runs and the confidence not really there having to book a 5lb claimer on her.

Richard Fahey’s Amazing Michelle though finished in front of the well thought of Gosden filly Steam Song who has a Group 1 entry, she has improved with every run and with her advantage of contesting the 8f all ready, she could be the one to side with, shame Tony Hamilton rides her, but regardless she has progressed from first to second run which is important.

AMAZING MICHELLE : 1pt each way @ SP (BOG)

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14.05 Ascot – Twinings Novice Auction Stakes (6f)

Now again in theory if form goes to plan, Richard Hughes Odyssey should be all the rage here, her defeat on debut at Wolverhampton saw her finish just a head behind Michael Stoute’s Forever In Love who runs after this race at Haydock. She was running on well that day and Shane Kelly will take the ride once more for his stable.

Any dangers, Society Lily could be interesting on debut for trainer Hugo Palmer, the daughter of Society Rock could play a big part on this softening ground, Jim Crowley will do the steering.

ODYSSA : 2pt Win @ SP (BOG)

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14.25 Haydock – 32red EBF Fillies Novices Stakes (6f)

Another division of fillies here and this time over the sprint trip of 6f, Simon Crisford’s form with his juveniles this year have been reasonable and he saddles here Long Embrace. She finished fifth on debut on the all weather at Wolverhampton, the winner Shania Says ran well recently in a Class 2 contest at Goodwood three days ago off a mark of 69 beaten a length and a quarter.

In front of her was Forever In Love who was the beaten even money favourite, Stoute’s filly was very lit up that day and will get the aid of the first time visor applied, she definitely sets the standard ahead of Long Embrace. Richard Kingscote is 2-8 riding out for Stoute since the turn of May which reflects that a 25% strike rate is fair.

FOREVER IN LOVE : 2pt Win @ SP (BOG)

 

 

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Horse Racing Preview – Brighton & Worcester – 3rd September 2017

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Today’s horse racing preview comes from two meetings, with selections from Worcester and Brighton.

 

14.00 Brighton – Hertz Brighton Maiden Auction Stakes (5.1f)

Richard Hannon’s backward Juveniles are starting to come to hand and this could be a good opportunity for his filly Ghepardo to get her head in front at the fifth attempt. Her best run this year came on the all weather when finishing runner up at Wolverhampton being just denied by Tom Dascombe’s Deviate who has gone on to run an improved second to Michael Bells Revived.

He could not get competitive when stepping up on Handicap bow at Glorious Goodwood when running last in a 0-80 Nursery, however that was over 7f and it was obvious that a step back to sprinting was looking more likely, he competes over 5f this afternoon once more and should be the one to beat under Tom Marquand.

The main danger and probably the most frustrating one in the race is Sylvester Kirk’s Three Little Birds, form May to June it looked like a win was just around the corner after a string of good runs when being placed on three occasions. Even though she was possibly out classed when contesting the Class 2 Weatherby’s Super Sprint at Newbury, she ran a creditable seventh of twenty three, a length a head of her was Mother of Dragons who has also finished last in a Nursery since at Nottingham, but excuses can be made for her run purely as the ground was just beyond heavy and a mud-fest, she will be better back on this quicker ground.

GHEPARDO : 1pt each way :@ SP (BOG)

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14.45 Worcester – Bet Toteexacta AT Betfred.com Novices Chase (16.5f)

This is probably Charlie Longsdon’s last chance saloon to get Lambeau Field a slim chance of running well off a low weight. The once trained Charles O’Brien gelding changed hands last October and ran a cracker on debut when placed in the Grade 2 JCB Triumph Hurdle trial, that alone would be significant enough to land a race of this nature, but he was beaten out of sight on his return this year at Ludlow, then it looked like he was going to record his first success when just denied in a 0-110 Handicap Hurdle back in April.

Once more trainer stepped him back up into a Class 2 where again he showed no love when tailing off by eighty lengths, he drops down in class once more into a class 4 and should really be making his presence felt off this low weight of 10st 4lb on his chasing bow, the extra half a furlong also could play to his strengths as most of his runs above 16f has seen him go reasonably close.

Colin Tizzard’s Solatentif should also be on the premises after a good second at Uttoxeter on only his third chase run, he has a good fourth on his resume in a Grade 2 chase, he has to be feared from a five week layoff, Richard Johnson takes the ride for the first time, If Mad Jack Mytton turned up in a form that has seen him land a 0-135 Handicap Hurdle this year he would have to be the most feared in the race. He returns this afternoon to the larger obstacles and his best career run came in a 0-135 Chase back in January when behind Paul Nicholls Clic Work and on that occasion ran up to a mark of around 127 which is still a lot ahead of these today.

Favourites have a good record in the race, taking 4-6 which includes the last three renewals this saw Aidan Colman ride last years winner for Nigel Hawke, I expect the market to be in favour of Jonjo O’Neills seven year old and continue the run of winning favourites for the race.

MAD JACK MYTTON : 2pt Win @ SP (BOG)

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15.15 Worcester – Bet Totequadpot At Betfred.com Intermediate Open National Hunt Flat (16f)

All about pedigree and with Saint Des Saints progeny’s having a excellent strike rate with first time bumper runners, this is an opportunity for Francky Du Berlais to give Peter Bowen his first bumper runner since April. It’s not the greatest of contests even though a few of these have had the benefit of a run. Beyond The Clouds has run well on both NHF starts which resulted with a win on debut, but with both runs coming at Musselburgh, maybe that is where his next success will come.

Neil Mulholland’s Mac Tottie has had every opportunity to get his head in front, but has failed now on three occasions, I am not a fan of bumper runners that take this amount of time to hit the winning enclosure at this level. He blew his chance at Newton Abbott last time when beaten to two and a half lengths, but the winner has gone on again to win around the same sphere at Fontwell, won’t mind the ground and is a major player under Noel Fehily.

FRANCKY DE BERLAIS : 2pt Win @ SP (BOG)

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15.30 Brighton – British Stallions Studs EBF Fillies Handicap (9.9f) (0-85)

A very competitive contest here with Roger Varian’s Great Court being one of the principles, she looked really smart when landing her maiden against her own sex on the all weather in good style. Her two career runs on turf have seen her run well when third in a 0-75 handicap at Sandown and was probably given a tame ride by Andrea Atzeni who for me has been doing this too much this year, not disrespecting the jockey, but it just seems he is not riding mounts out to their best possible finishing position. She has been beaten over this trip on turf this year quiet convincingly, however the winner has gone on to compete at pattern level.

The third has won a 0-95 recently and the fourth Nathalie has won her maiden since, her mark of 78 I do not think does her justice considering she has been running up to mid eighties, young 3lb smart claiming jockey David Egan takes the ride. Recent course and distance winner Impressive Day got the better of Marie Josephe three weeks ago, she gets 1lb back here and the form looks to be solid enough that she can hold her ground once more.

Michael Bells Jive Talking never seems to run a bad race, course and distance winner back in July in a 0-70 handicap and to be fair has kept that level of form when runner up in a 0-80 at Windsor under a penalty, she did not run that badly in a 0-100 handicap at Salisbury two weeks ago, but the trip was all wrong over the 12f index, she drops back to 9.9f once more and has to be feared under Lewis Steward.

With already a good level of form, Kitty Boo has run well since coming out of the maiden ranks, her handicap bow saw her go close at Newmarket under Jamie Spencer, she goes up another 1lb and even though she is consistent I feel she has not had the breaks with the ground issues, Luca would not have her here now unless she has been crying out for quicker ground, with her age allowance she can take this race under Luke Morris. three year old’s have one all four renewals.

KITTY BOO : 2pt Win @ SP (BOG)

 

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Horse Racing Preview – Sandown & Beverley – 2nd September 2017

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Today’s selections come from Beverley and Sandown for Saturday 2nd September 2017.

14.25 Sandown – BetBright Solorio Stakes (Group 3) (7f)

I always found that 7f is a specialist trip, even if you are stepping up or dropping down in trip, this index can catch a few out, also pedigree is a strong factor here and one that really stands out is Charlie Appleby’s Masar.

The son of New Approach who was unbeaten over this trip as a juvenile and Masar definitely inherited his fathers genes.

The Chesham Stakes is probably the best form to take out of this race, despite only finishing third behind September and Nyaleti, the form was given a boost when Nyaleti went on to land the Group 3 Princess Margaret Juddmonte Stakes at Ascot, but the form has taken a hit with both beaten very convincingly when stepping into better company, however I do think he is a bit classier than these.

Main dangers should be coming form John Gosden’s Purser who landed a touch when winning at Newbury, his maiden was very competitive with the likes of Merlin Magic whom he beat, the front pair were easily clear of the third.

MASAR : 3pt Win @ 7/4 (BOG)

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15.00 Sandown – BetBright Casino Atalanta Stakes (Group 3) (8f)

With four from six past winning favourites in this race I suppose we have to take on board that Nathra will head the market for John Gosden.

She has got better with every run and looked like she was going to get off the mark in the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes when she was beaten by Massaat who was tipped up on here. If she brings her second in the French 1000gns she will be very hard to beat. She was beaten this year in the Valiant Stakes which went to On Her Toes who she re-apposes again this afternoon.

This time around she will be getting 3lb back form both Tisbutadream and On Her Toes and with her improvement now coming to hand she should be finding the losing distance. Tisbutadream has to be considered again after her second in the Hungerford Stakes, but I have concerns that this race has come to quick after her defeat in France two weeks ago.

NATHRA : 2pt Win @ 9/2 (BOG)

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15.15 Beverley – totescoop6 Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes (Listed) (5f)

Last years winner and fourth go head to head again and it is the latter this time around that can gain revenge and success. Final Venture has since changed hands when he was trained by Alan Swinbank to win this race, now with a sprinting trainer I feel he has enough speed to fend off all comers under a power pack ride from Nunthorpe winning jockey Luke Morris.

Kimberella seems to save her best for the all weather or Chester these days, but she did win the Listed Queensberry Stakes at Chester two runs back when beating Judicial quiet comfortably, but she has to concede 3lb to Judicial this time around and the latter should be a lot closer this time.

Borderlescott landed this race as a ten year old and Take Cover is looking to come as the only second double aged winner. Dropping back into this category he has to be taken seriously after he showed when landing the Listed City Walls Stakes at York this year.

However both Kimberella and Take Cover have become more exposed than some of these on turf this year, so on that account Paul Midgley’s five year old can go three places better this year.

FINAL VENTURE : 2pt Win @ 5/1 (BOG)

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