Today’s horse racing preview continues from day two of the Newmarket three day festival with the highlight of day two being the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes.
13.50 Newmarket – Muhaarar British EBF Rosemary Stakes (Listed) (8f)
Not many really stand out for me in this renewal and I am looking at just three entries that are likely to be involved. Firstly, Tisbutadream who has been consistent all season. To give her a realistic chance of winning this I have looked at her Listed Coral Distaff win at Sandown. Do I feel it is good enough to win this? Honestly no. Since being raised 13lb when winning a Class 2 handicap at Ascot, she has found life tough around this sphere. The Sandringham run was disappointing to be fair when finishing ninth and probably ran up to a handicap mark of around 95.
She then surprised me when landing the Listed event at Sandown when beating 93 rated Queen of Time by half a length, so in theory she ran up to that mark of 95, should have won in France but blew it in my opinion and then came back to be beaten in the Atalanta Stakes when behind two smart horses in Nathra and Aljazzi, the winner looked smart. So where do we go, back in Listed company, yes it’s down in class, but has not shown me enough that she can win this.
So on to two horses that competed this last year, Willie Haggas’s Muffri’ha and Ralph Beckett’s Desert Haze. Muffri’ha was giving 4lb to Desert Haze last year when finishing a length in front, they meet off level weights this afternoon and this should open the fact that Muffri’ha should be getting a lot closer this year. Finishing behind 110 rated Laugh Aloud last year, Mutthri’ha went on to land the Listed Darley Stakes. I thought she had a good spell in Meydan this year finishing third on three occasions from Group 3 to the top of the tree when third in the Group 1 Jebel Hatta only half a length behind winner and 119 rated Decorated Knight.
She was probably a tad unlucky not to land her first run back when competing in the All Weather Championships when beaten a neck to Realtra who poses a rating of 105. Her 9f Dahlia Stakes run was all wrong, even though is was a trip she had won at last season she had a few runs before hand, this time it came far too quickly. She has a rating of around 104 which is a solid and good foundation to land a Listed event of this nature.
Desert Haze has struggled in three Listed events this year , and with a rating of around 90 from her Goodwood win from last June, she looks up against it off her current mark of 98 to be fair and has a bit to find with Muffri’ha from last year.
MUFFRI’HA : 2pt Win @ 5/1 (BOG)
14.25 Newmarket – Princess Royal Nayef Stakes (Group 3) (12f)
If form goes to plan then Sir Michael Stoute’s Mori should be winning this. Her second to Coronet in this years Ribblesdale Stakes when beaten favourite is the best form on paper. Coronet went on to get within five lengths of Arc favourite Enable in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks, she had Apphia back in fifth a further four lengths back and beaten, Coconut Creme back in seventh a further two and a half lengths.
However, she let herself down when beaten in the Listed Galtres Stakes when behind one of her adversaries here in Fleur Forsyte, I am goin gto stick up for her here and give her the benefit of the doubt with the ground coming up soft than stated in the press. She is just one of those horses that has a serious pedigree, by Frankel out of Midday, how can that not be star potential, though she has to show it this afternoon, and if kept in training next season she is going to be a force over these middle distances like her parents were.
One that deserves a big mention is Andrew Balding’s Elbereth, her fourth in this years Coronation Cup would give her a live chance of being involved in this wide open renewal. Since her run at Epsom they have been toiling with her over the best index for her, obviously 12f on good/firm ground is going to pay to her strengths.
She was last seen heading abroad when beaten by two lengths in the Group 3 Bosphorus Cup at Velifendi, beaten in fact by Godolphin’s Secret Number who ran well recently behind Desert Encounter last weekend. However, this is Mori’s race to lose to be honest, if she is good enough and her pedigree can shine through she has the ability to blitz this race in style.
MORI : 2pt Win @ 7/2 (BOG)
15.00 Newmarket – Shadwell Rockfel Stakes (Group 2) (7f)
This looks far too open for my liking this year, with only three winning favourites since 2000 it just goes to show how much of a minefield race this is. On my analysis, and its taken on trust by me that Tom Dascombe’s Capomento could be over priced at 16/1. Her current three runs have been interesting with a Novice win on debut at Ripon, she was given the opportunity to prove herself early and did not disappoint to be fair when finishing runner up in the Listed Star Stakes at Sandown when behind Tajannus who went on to land the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes.
Then obviously they thought she was black type potential when sending her to France to compete in the Group 3 Prix Du Calvados finishing seven lengths behind eventual winner Polydream who is apparently well thought of from the Freddie Head yard. The runner up Lauren’s has recently landed the Group 2 May Hill Stakes, the seventh won a maiden in France, so still unknown quality on how good she is considering the form has become solid.
John Gosden does not usually keep many juveniles going this late in the season, Juliet Capulet though equipped herself well when launched into pattern company to finish second in the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes, a race that has seen the winner beaten since in the May Hill Stakes, the third has at least franked the form winning the Group 1 Natalma Stakes out in Woodbine last week, the fifth place Poet Charm won a stakes race at Kempton three weeks ago, so some form there, its the Lauren’s form that interests me, considering Capomento was not beaten far by her it shows that both mentioned could actually be very much involved at the business end here.
CAPOMENTO : 1pt each way @ 16/1 (BOG)
15.35 Newmarket – Shadwell Joel Stakes (Group 2) (8f)
I was surprised that Beat The Bank did not turn up in this years Park Hill Stakes, but nevertheless, here will do just fine as on what evidence he has shown this year he is very hard to beat in this. Young Oisin Murphy is re-united with him, who won on him here at Newmarket last year over 7f in a conditions race. With Ryan Moore retained to ride for Balydoyle, this is a nice opportunity for Murphy to get more of the success he has been tasting this year.
I thought he was impressive when landing the Listed Sir Henry Cecil Stakes by three lengths, the runner up has run well again when beaten by his adversary here Mustashry, Ryan Moore rode the selection to success last time when landing his first pattern win in the Grp 3 Bonhams Thorough-bred Stakes at Goodwood, looks to have the class to land a race like this off 114.
Best of the rest looks to come from Zonderland and Mustashry, the former looked to be cruising to an easy success to be beaten in a tight finish by Lightning Spear in the Group 2 Celebration Mile, how much has that effected the horse, considering it was his first run for a year it was very much encouraging, but might find the selection stripping fitter. Mustashry beat Forest Ranger in the Strensall Stakes at York, with Sovereign Debt back in third, both have to be feared.
BEAT THE BANK : 2pt Win @ 9/4 (BOG)
Best of Luck, Bet Responsibly