Horse Racing Preview – Wincanton and Carlisle – 5th April 2017
Today’s Horse Racing Preview includes 3 from Wincanton and 1 from Carlisle.
This looks like another opportunity for Gary Moore’s Mr Fickle to win again this afternoon. His eleven length demolition of strong opposition at Plumpton eight days ago in a 0-125 Handicap has seriously gone un-noticed by the handicapper. Winning off a mark of 107 he gets a very lenient 7lb rise for beating adversaries that were rated 13lb and 15lb higher. Steps back up in trip this afternoon and was beaten off a mark of 118 last season over this trip, but if the ground is still coming up on the quick side he has to be respected with the visor still implicated.
Nigel Twiston-Davies Gulshanigans looks the obvious danger. With two runner up spots this year at Ludlow he has to come into the equation. He has not been beaten far on his past two runs and will relish if the ground comes up on the softer side. Another that has the potential of mixing it up is the Philip Hobbs trained Lapalala who is 0-7 over hurdles and was seen finishing fourth over 19.8f around Wincanton two runs back. She has not been seen since finishing fourth on Boxing day at Fontwell a similar index, she will have to step up to make an impact once more.
Mr Fickle : 2pt Win @ 2/1 (BOG)
Paul Nicholls is still trailing Nicky Henderson in the trainer’s title by approximately £77000 and will be looking for Aintree to cut into the deficit. The second race on the card could bring him a little closer when he saddles Lou Vert. He has improved slowly from both his runs this year since diverting to the larger obstacles. His second at Taunton last time sets him up nicely off his current mark of 117 and now stepping up in trip. He would prefer the quicker ground this afternoon and should record his first National Hunt win under jockey Sam Twiston-Davies’ guidance.
The obvious dangers look to be Nick Mitchell’s Dance Floor King and Alan King’s McCabe Creek. The former has a wealth of experience around the chasing ranks which included a good second over course and distance back in February when behind Bishop’s Court, who did not sustain that form when finishing last at Sedgefield on probably unsuitable ground. He followed up with a good second at Sandown last month when five lengths behind Morning Reggie in a far better race than this, he deserves respect but the trainer is having a quiet spell with stats of 1-40 which is a concern.
McCabe Creek is the interesting one. The first season chaser went backwards when stepped up to 21.4f last time out at Market Rasen beaten twenty two lengths in a 0-135 contest. This is a more convenient drop in class, but has to give significant weight all round. Chris Gordon’s entry Comeonginger was running off a 16lb higher mark this time last year, and has won off a mark of 120 two seasons ago. Now off 108 he has dropped significantly on a serious winning mark, but the jockey is on a serious cold run 1-60, no confidence for me despite getting weight all round.
Lou Vert : 2pt Win @ 5/2 (BOG)
Both Toby Lerone and Mon Parrian have established themselves to be well equipped chasers and should be the two to concentrate on. The latter represents Paul Nicholl’s who is 1-3 this year around this sphere. His win two runs back at Fontwell probably flattered him a bit when beating a low grade bunch of individuals. He was put in his place by Poole Master next time at Warwick going behind by two and three quarter lengths when giving six pound to the eventual winner, so on paper the result was fair. He will get just the 2lb from Toby Lerone this afternoon which I feel will not be enough to defeat the inform Dan Skelton ten year old.
Toby Lerone has been relishing the Hunter Chase circuit and is 2/3 this year with his defeat coming over a much shorter trip which looked excusable. He was stepped back up to 24.5f at Towcester when beating Jerpeck by six lengths who was lacking in experience so he could be a good yardstick victory. He gets the well accomplished p2p jockey Sam Davies-Thompson on board this afternoon who is 7-20 (35%) which has included five of his last six rides as winners.
Toby Lerone : 3pt Win @ 7/4 (BOG)
An average bumper to finish off what looked a poor card at Carlisle this afternoon, the selection here comes in Anthony Honeyball’s Nocturnal Myth. The trainer is no stranger with winners around this sphere, his last runner was a bumper winner four days ago and Nocturnal Myth can give the inform trainer another winner. He is by Midnight Legend out of the double chase winning mare Gan On. He should be wound up and fit to go for a trainer who is 8-20 (40%) with 3/4 of his last bumper runners bringing home the bacon this year.
Nigel Hawke has sent two bumper runners out this afternoon, one at Wincanton and the other here in Ouro Branco. The course and distance winner last time won easily by eighteen lengths in a small low grade field, it was a flattering performance in my opinion and coming up against much stiffer opposition here he could find things a bit tougher. Kerry Lee’s Destined To Shine left his poor debut behind him when coming out on top at Towcester by four lengths, but it is a race that is not showing any promise.
Nocturnal Myth : 2pt Win @ 4/1 (BOG)
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