It has been a challenging few days but I feel like things are going to turn back in my favour now..

I am going to stick to the value tips for now as they offer the best value and I am really good at picking those.

Yesterday both Bolton and America-MG won their games as I predicted they would and both were at odds well over evens so these can be very profitable selections.

Today I am avoiding the EFL Cup in England as it could have a lot of strange results and teams will often field different players in these games which makes them difficult to provide any tips for before seeing the team sheets.

I have managed to pick out two value tips today, both come from Italy Serie B.

veronaFirst up we have Verona who travel to Pisa. Whilst Pisa had put together a strong run of form at home the wheels have started to come off their performances lately. They have lost their last two games at home and have not won in their last four games, they also struggle to score goals managing just 6 in their last ten games. Verona on the other hand are a team in form winning six of their last seven games, including three straight away wins. I think the biggest positive for Verona is that they have the strength to outscore Pisa tonight as they have scored ten goals in their last three away games and have scored at least two goals in their last seven games.

Next up we have Pro Vercelli who host Latina this evening. Latina have failed to win away from home this season suffering three defeats and two draws. Pro Vercelli however have won three straight home games, all against teams similar to Latina. Pro Vercelli suffered a defeat in their last game but that was away at league leaders Verona and they will be looking to put that behind them with a win over a poor Latina side who I expect to offer little resistance.

David’s Value Bets For Today:

Verona Win – Odds: Evens (2.00)

Pro Vercelli Win – Odds: 11/10 (2.10)

A very mixed bag this weekend with some unexpected results that caught many out, including myself. Arsenal failing to beat Middlesbrough at home and PSG failing to beat Marseille, Juventus, Leverkusan and Sporting Lisbon also slipped up this weekend and brought down many accumulators.

We now enter a new week and look to find some value on what looks like a tricky day of betting with few games and some tricky ones to call. I have been through all the days games and picked out my selections..

I am starting in Poland where Ruch host Korona Kielce, a game that the bookies have given the home team a slight advantage in but one that should be tight. It is a meeting of two teams struggling for form, Ruch have lost their last four games and have suffered three straight defeats at home. Korona have also lost their last four and in their two previous away games they lost 6-0 & 4-0. Whilst I think this will be a home win tonight I am not willing to back that selection due to the poor quality of both defences so instead I have decided to take the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) market. Ruch have only kept one clean sheet in their last ten at home and Korona have only one clean sheet in their last ten away from home.

zenitThere are not a lot of obvious shouts for winners today but Zenit to beat Orenburg is certainly the standout game for backing a home win. The odds also reflect this with Zenit as low as 1/4, so there’s not a lot of value there. There is value however in backing Zenit to win with over 2.5 goals in the game that is currently at odds around 4/5. Zenit average 4.33 goals in their home games and we would only need 3 goals and home win to land this one.

Konyaspor host Fenerbahce in Turkey this evening in a game where Fenerbahce look far too short at their price and I would avoid backing them to win this one. I do however like the look of Both Team To Score at odds around 10/11. The last three meetings of this fixture landed BTTS and given that both teams average over a goal per game and Fenerbahce are coming off the back of a 4-1 defeat to Manchester United I think this looks a solid bet.

Sweden is generally a great league to find over 2.5 goals selections as the league has an average goals per game that is a lot higher than the rest of Europe. I have picked two games from Sweden to make up an over 2.5 goals double for today. IFK Gothenburg vs AIK and Djurgaarden vs Joenkoeping both look very solid selections to have three of more goals tonight.

In terms of value picks for today I have two teams that I believe are at longer odds than they should be today. Firstly, Bolton travel to Bury in English League 1 tonight. Bury have suffered four straight defeats, two of which came at home. Bolton on the other hand have started to find their form, winning their last three games, two of those coming away from home. With Bolton currently at odds of 29/20, this stands out as a value pick tonight.

Later on in Brazil I have also found another value pick. America MG are currently bottom of the table and a defeat tonight will all but seal their relegation. However, their opponents tonight Atletico PR are dreadful away from home, losing eight of their last ten away, including defeats to the teams second and third bottom in the table, they have also failed to even score in their last six away. I see no reason not to fancy an America MG win tonight as they fight for their survival. Odds of 17/10 make this a value pick.

Based on the above, here are my Top Tips for today:

Super Single:

Zenit Win + Over 2.5 Goals – Odds: 4/5

BTTS Double:

Ruch vs Korona Kielce + Konyaspor vs Fenerbahce – Odds: 2.43/1

Over 2.5 Goals Double:

IFK Gothenburg vs AIK + Djurgaarden vs Joenkoeping – Odds: 1.96/1

Value Pick 1:

Bolton Win – Odds: 29/20

Value Pick 2:

America MG Win – Odds: 17/10

 

 

Morning all,

Just a very short update from me to give you all your tips for the day.

As I have not been able to do a huge amount of research into a lot of games I only have two tips for today..

David’s Super Single:

2pts – Nice Win vs Metz (France Ligue 1)

Odds: Evens

David’s Daily Double:

1pts – Double:

Manchester City Win vs Southampton

Heerenveen Win vs Heracles

Odds: 1.43/1

Saturday is here and my match tracker tells me here are 1,026 matches taking place today! Too many for me to analyse every game but I have picked out 7 matches today that I fancy teams to win and have some bets for.

Let’s start in the Premier League as three of my games come from there.

arsenalArsenal play host to Middlesbrough and this on paper should be a very easy game for Arsenal. They eased past Ludogrets 6-0 on Wednesday night and have won nine of their last 10 games, the only other game being the 1-1 draw away at PSG which is a respectable result. At home this season the only blip on their record was that 3-4 defeat to Liverpool on the opening game of the season, since then they have notched up 5 straight home wins, scoring 16 goals. Things have not been so easy for Middlesbrough who have managed just the one win so far this campaign. I struggled to see anything other than a comfortable home win here.

Next up we have Burnley vs Everton. Everton are a team that I think are doing well this season. Take their mini blip out of the recent results this season and they actually have a strong record and come into this game as a very difficult opponent for a Burnley side who are desperate to get some points on the board. I think the matchup of the teams and the strength of Lukaku upfront for Everton will make them far too strong for their opposition here.

The evening game in the Premier League sees Liverpool host West Brom. If we ignore that dreadful game on Monday night against Manchester United then Liverpool are a form team in the Premier League this season. They had a slip up away at Burnley where they lost 2-0 but since then they have racked up some very impressive performances as well as beating Leicester 4-1 and Chelsea 2-1. I think they are going to have far too much firepower for a West Brom team who are struggling to convert games into wins and have picked up three straight 1-1 draws. Away from home this season West Brom have faced some poor sides and failed to win, such as Stoke, Sunderland  and Bournemouth so I hold little hope for them at Liverpool who will be looking to put on a performance after that poor show on Monday. This could be a handsome Liverpool win.

My only other pick in England today would be in League Two where Wycombe host Barnet. Wycombe stand out in this game due to the odds on offer of 6/5. Whilst they have not win in their last two games, those games were both away from home and their home form has been very good, winning their last 4. Barnet are really struggling this season and are currently 2nd bottom picking up just 2 points in their last five games. I think the odds on a Wycombe win are far too big here and should be taken advantage of.

Elsewhere in Europe I fancy wins for Leverkusan at home to Hoffenheim, Freiburg at home to Augsburg and Bordeaux at home to Nancy as these teams currently stand out based on current form guides.

Based on the above, here are my Top Tips for today:

David’s Super Single:

2pts – Arsenal -1.5 Asian Handicap vs Middlesbrough (Premier League)

Odds: 3/4

 

David’s Daily Double:

1pts – Double:

Everton Win vs Burnley

Wycombe Win vs Barnet

Odds: 2.66/1

 

David’s Daily Acca:

0.5pts – 6-Fold:

Arsenal Win

Liverpool Win

Everton Win

Bordeaux Win

Freiburg Win

Leverkusan Win

Odds: 14.91/1

 

David’s Longshot Treble:

0.25pts – Treble:

Liverpool Win + BTTS

Wycombe Win + BTTS

Freiburg Win + BTTS

Odds: 55.06/1

  • All odds listed here taken from Bet365

Happy Friday everyone, hopefully this week has treated you well.

Welcome to a new feature on the Betalyst site. Based on the most recent round of feedback that you all provided me (thanks to all who got involved) I am now going to be writing a daily column on the site to highlight my picks of the day.

As you all know Betalyst is based off of it’s own algorithm that picks tips everyday and analyses every match in it’s system to provide predictions for outcomes and events in games and it is currently very accurate, especially compared to other similar websites that I monitor and compare against.

This column will be my personal viewpoint on the day’s football betting and a selection of my own tips. I encourage you all to get involved using the comments section below to share your tips for the day, thoughts on the days games, any research you have and ask questions of me and other readers about bets you are thinking of placing.

David’s Top Tips

There are a decent number of games on today to research, the highlights include Burton vs Birmingham in the English Championship, Monaco vs Montpellier in French Ligue 1, Hamburg vs Frankfurt in the German Bundesliga and Osasuna vs Betis in La Liga… There are also a host of games from French Ligue 2, Portgual, Poland and more.

falcaoI am going to start today with the game in Ligue 1 where Monaco play host to Montpellier. On paper this would look to be Monaco’s match and I think the return of Radamel Falcao is only going to strengthen their claims. They had a tough workout in Moscow on Tuesday night and that may give Montpellier a slight edge in terms of fitness. Montpellier have scored in each of their four away games this season and given that Monaco have only managed the one clean sheet at home which came in the 3-0 win over Rennes, I would suggest Both Teams To Score looks likely here.

In Germany Hamburg host Frankfurt tonight in a game where the bookies have struggled to separate the teams and this could open up some value. Despite the change in manager and an impressive point they picked up away at M’Gladback last week I still can’t see any life in this Hamburg team. They are still yet to win a game this season and have managed to score just two goals. However on the other side we have a Frankfurt side that are really struggling with games away from home, with just 2 away wins in their last ten away from home and only 3 points from 9 available away this season. I think the one standout selection in this game has to be Under 2.5 Goals. Hamburg average 2.33 goals per game at home and Frankfurt’s average is just 1.83.

The game in La Liga tonight Osasuna vs Betis is one that I am going to take a pass on, I can’t separate the sides and nothing appeals in what could be a dreadful game.

In England tonight Burton play hosts to a Birmingham side who put four goals past Rotherham in midweek and  they have only lost once in their six away games this season. An initial look at Burton’s form may make you think about backing the away win but on closer inspection they have some merit. They have managed just two wins in their last 10 matches in all competitions, however, when you break it into home league games they have managed to pick up 10 points from their 6 home games. I think it is a game to avoid trying to pick a winner from, but would take interest in the Under 2.5 Goals market. Burton have only gone over 2.5 goals at home once this season in their defeat by Bristol City and Birmingham’s away games tend to average only two goals.

Elsewhere around Europe tonight I fancy a couple of teams at attractive odds, namely, Brest away at Laval in French Ligue 2. Brest are currently top of the table and are in a bit of form in the league and come up against a Laval side who currently sit 2nd bottom and have managed just 6 goals this season to Brest’s 17. Brest are currently at odds around 2/1 to win. Excelsior vs Zwolle looks set to be a match full of goals, both teams average over three goals per game and the two previous meetings ended 2-2 and 0-5, I fancy Excelsior to come out on the right side of the goals tonight with a win. Finally another game in French Ligue 2 where Tours host Valenciennes, I am struggling to find any reason to back a Tours side who have not won a game at home since 1st April and have only managed three goals in six home games this season. Valenciennes come into the game on the back of two wins where they have scored seven goals and I think they will have too much for Tours here.

Based on the above, here are my Top Tips for today:

David’s Super Single:

2pts – Monaco Win vs Monpellier (French Ligue 1)

Odds: 4/6

David’s Daily Double:

1pts – Double:

Monaco vs Monpellier – Both Teams to Score

Hamburg vs Frankfurt – Under 2.5 Goals

Odds: 2.2/1

David’s Daily Acca:

0.5pts – 5-Fold:

Monaco Win vs Montpellier

Brest Win vs Laval

Valenciennes Win vs Tours

Burton vs Birmingham – Under 2.5 Goals

Excelsior vs Zwolle – Over 2.5 Goals

Odds: 39.3/1

David’s Longshot Treble:

0.25pts – Treble:

Monaco Win + BTTS

Excelsior Win + BTTS

Valenciennes Win

Odds: 43.09/1

  • All odds listed here taken from Bet365

Good luck today everyone..

Please discuss the days betting, your tips and ask any questions of my tips in the comment section below.

Tonight’s Monday night football looks set to be a cracker with Liverpool playing host to Manchester United in what is one of the highest profile fixtures in the English football calendar.

liverpool-vs-manuBoth teams come into this game on relatively strong form:

  • Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 7 games
  • Man Utd are unbeaten in their last 4 games
  • Liverpool have scored 9 goals in their 2 home games this season (avg 4.5 per game)
  • Man Utd have scored 8 goals in their 5 away games this season (avg 1.6 per game)

Liverpool have only played two games at home this season due to the work that was being carried out on their stadium over the summer so it is difficult to make many judgements on their home form, given that they scored 5 against Hull in their last home game, a team that have gone on to concede 6 goals to Bournemouth so we can’t take too much from that one. The 4-1 victory against Leicester is put in doubt given Leicester’s poor away form this season but that is still a good indication.

Manchester United have had some slippery results away from home this season. A 3-1 win away at Bournemouth was spot on what was expected of them but they could only manage a 1-0 win away at Hull, a result that pulls down their score as based on other teams performances again Hull this comes up short for United. A 1-0 defeat to Feyenoord and a 3-1 defeat away at Watford are strong indicators that Man United may have some issues away from home.

The algorithm has picked out Liverpool to edge out the win here with a score of 50% vs  score of 42% for United and only 8% for the draw. I am going to put my weight behind Liverpool as well in this one.

In terms of goals this is a fixture that does not offer many trends so it is best to look into recent form as a guide to goals in this one tonight.

Liverpool’s home games this season have averaged 5.5 goals and United’s away games this season have averaged 2.8 goals. With the Betalyst algorithm throwing out a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals here I think that looks like a solid bet and both teams to score is also being offered a score of 82% confidence that both teams will find the net. Liverpool have failed to keep a clean sheet at home this season and United’s only clean sheet away from home this season was against Hull.

Based on all the above, my bets for tonights game are:

Liverpool to win @ 2.25 – Bet365

Liverpool to win + BTTS @ 4.33 – Bet365

Both teams to score @ 1.70 – Bet365

Full matchup stats can be found here: Liverpool vs Manchester United

Over the past couple of months I have been working hard to improve the Betalyst website to make it match the way you all bet.

I have added new sections such as the NAP (Bet of the Day), Daily Double, Over 3.5 Goals and the £10 to £1,000 Challenge.

I have also begun doing Inplay betting tips on the Twitter account to provide tips throughout the day.

You will also notice that the PRO Tips is now only £9.99 a month!

All of these changes and many more were made to the site thanks to all the feedback that you provided in my last feedback survey and I am hoping that you are all enjoying the updates I have made.

I am now ready to start working on some even more exciting stuff for you guys so it would be great to get your feedback again so I can prioritise where to start and add sections to the site that you will all find useful.

Please take a couple of minutes to fill out the form below and let me know how I can help you with your betting in the future.

There are now over 10,000 of you using Betalyst! Thank you all for your support.

(Five people who enter the survey will be picked at random to get a FREE lifetime membership to PRO Tips!)

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bookie-secretsThe UK Gambling industry is huge, in 2015 it was reported that in the UK alone it was worth £7.1 billion…

That is some serious cash being bet every year for bookmakers to be making that sort of money.

This means that gambling is big business, the highlight being the word ‘Business’. While many of us treat the weekend accumulator as a bit of fun, for websites such as Bet365 and William Hill this is where they make their money.

It is no surprise then that an industry this big has a few secrets or tricks that it does not want you to know about as it’s what gives them their edge!

In this post, I share 7 secrets that bookmakers don’t want you to know about…

Did you know:

1. Accumulators

Have you noticed how bookies actively encourage users to place accumulator bets?

Most bookmakers now have promotions that give you an extra 10%, 20%, 30% or up to 100% bonus on your winnings if you win an accumulator. Or there are those bookmakers that will refund your bet if one of your selections loses… so long as you back 6 or more selections?

There is a simple reason why the actively encourage this! This is where they make the majority of their revenue! The more lines you add to your slip the more likely it is your bet will fail.

When speaking to professional gamblers the one thing that came out is that they back single bets 90% of the time, doubles 5% of the time and trebles 3% of the time. Only 2% of their bets will be accumulators, why? Because they are too risky.

Whilst the internet is full of stories of people winning thousands of pounds from their accumulators, they are a tiny percentage of the total accumulators placed every day at the bookies, so the bookies are still making a very handsome profit from these and will continue to encourage you to back them.

How many accumulators have you backed in your life? How many have won? Are you in profit? I doubt it.

2. Account Limits

Did you know that when you are winning, bookmakers will limit your account so that you can only put a certain amount on some bets? Usually a very small amount.

I have witnessed this first hand when betting with William Hill… After a profitable first couple of weeks using their website I started to notice that they were rejecting my bets… On further investigation, I actually found they were restricting the amount I could stake on my bets.

I had a double in my bet slip with odds around evens and the most they would let me put on the bet was £5. A couple of weeks later I tried to back a 4-fold at 10/1 and the most they would let me put on it was £2… Needless to say, I soon stopped using William Hill… Which is exactly what they wanted me to do. By limiting my account they knew I would eventually give up and avoids them having to actively ban me from their site.

Needless to say, I soon stopped using William Hill… Which is exactly what they wanted me to do. By limiting my account they knew I would eventually give up and avoids them having to actively ban me from their site.

This is why most professional or profitable gamblers won’t be using traditional betting sites because they will have been banned.

3. Overrounds

Did you know that bookmakers have an overround? Have you ever worked out the percentages of the markets you are betting on?

This is a complex subject matter for a post like this, but put simply it is like this:

If you sum up the total percentage probability of the odds offered by a bookmaker, you will often find that they add up to over 100%, often at around 106%.

As you will likely have worked out by now, that does not sound right… This extra 6% is the bookmaker’s profit margin on that market. So for every £100 they pay out to winners, they make £106 themselves.

In order to get yourself the best odds on your bet, you should look to find the bookmakers with the lowest overround. Or use markets such as Asian handicaps which tend to have 2 rather than 3 outcomes which tend to limit the bookies overround.

4. Tracking

When you are on a bookmakers website they are tracking you!

They will use your data such as your IP address to decide whether or not you have more than one account with them or to find out if you bet with another bookmaker and have been banned/limited on that other bookmaker’s website.

They also use things like cookies to track what you do to ensure they can limit or block your account if required.

I have also heard of bookmakers using your IP address to work out where you are to see if you fit into certain criteria to market to you in particular ways, for example, if you are in London they may think you have more money that users in other areas and offer you more attractive offers to lure you in as they believe you have more money to lose.

I would suggest you regularly clear your cookies from these sites and keep this in mind when you are making a profit from your betting as they will likely share this information with other bookmakers to have your betting accounts limited.

5. Bookies Promote Their Profitable Bets

This one should be fairly obvious but many people still fall for this.

If a bookmaker is heavily pushing an offer it is because they want you to take advantage of it. The one thing to remember here is that the bookmakers are not on your side, they are a business looking to make money so they are only going to actively promote the markets that they think they are going to make money from. They are typically the ones that have good overrounds as mentioned above.

If the bookmaker is promoting it, I walk away from that bet and look for something different. At the end of the day, they are a business looking to make money, so will market the bets that do that for them.

Avoid the hype, avoid that adverts on TV, pick the bets you have researched and not the ones put in front of you.

6. Bookmakers Talk To Each Other

Did you know that the bookies regularly get together to share information about profitable users? I have heard talk of a monthly meeting between teams from each of the bookmakers but I have not been able to confirm this.

It is in all their interests to find out about users that are winning big on competitors websites or to find out whether their users are linked in some way to users on other sites that are performing well.

This is how the bookmakers get together to identify syndicates and groups of people all placing the same bets so that they can limit those users, email address and IP address from making too much profit from their sites.

This is why you may find that after having a winning streak on one bookmaker that leads you to getting your account closed, you may find it difficult to open an account with another bookmaker as they have been alerted to your profitability.

7. Recreational Punters

Do you like the occasional weekend accumulator and a bit of inplay action every now and then?

As you new to gambling and learning the hard way?

Are you one of the gamblers who places bets on the live football matches when you see the ads at half time?

Then you are exactly the sort of punter that the bookies are trying to attract as you are classed in their most profitable segment of users.

You will no doubt have seen that some bookmakers such as Bet365 invest heavily in TV advertising at half-time in the live game on TV and across Sky Sports on the weekend?

This is because that is where all the profitable users are.

In order to avoid being in this group you need to start researching your bets, don’t place a rushed bet because you are watching the game live. Always take the time to check the stats and don’t just look at the odds in front of you and judge your bets on data provided by the bookies, they are there to take your money.

Conclusion

These are some of the secrets/tricks of the bookmakers. In order to stay ahead of the bookies I suggest you do the following:

  • Research all your bets before you place them
  • Bet with your head and not your heart
  • Never place a rushed bet. Think it over for a minute or two before placing it.
  • Be wary of bookmaker offers and promotions
  • Avoid accumulators and stick to singles, double or trebles at most
  • Only bet what you can afford to lose

I hope you found these seven bookmaker secrets useful.

Please help others by sharing this article with your friends and family on Facebook, Twitter and anywhere else online.

euro-2016Euro 2016 gets underway tonight when France (the hosts) take on Romania at 8pm GMT.

As I did for the World Cup 2 years ago I have put together a guide/bet for each one of the group games as well as a 10 pre-tournament bets that I fancy for this summers event.

I have looked over the stats and the head to head records of all the teams taking place and picked out my hottest bet for each of the games, as well as my final score prediction for each..

You can find all the bets here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tIpYDZ_VSbnxTMaKDsdAQlCJIZIyQzHNt6AalN3-JCk/edit?usp=sharing

I will be updating the results of each game in the document every day so that we can all track the progress of these bets.

Want to put on something big for the tournament? Why not have a look at our 50,000,000/1 bet for the group stages!

Finally, please share your best bets for Euro 2016 in the comments section below.

Everyone loves a punt on a big tournament and we are no different.

Based on the predictions I have created for the group stages I have turned them into a monster 11-fold accumulator at odds of 51,523,736/1

Due to the limits on what bookies will pay out, a 50p bet on this will return £2million on Bet365.

The bet consists of 11 Win and Both Teams To Score picks, you can see the full bet here:

 

51000000 to 1 accumulator - selections

 

You can see the odds breakdown for this bet here:

longshot bet odds

 

Have you had a long shot bet on Euro 1016??? Share it in the comments section below!

Enjoy EURO 2016 everyone!